Posted on 12/04/2012 12:02:23 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
For the US economy, this would be a 'Black Swan' of a totally different variety.
In Bank of America/Merrill Lynch's 2013 Energy Outlook, analyst Sabine Schels and colleagues make a shocking prediction about the possible path of West Texas Intermediate oil.
Surging US shale oil output creates risk of $50 WTI North America’s energy supplies are surging while the rest of the world continues to fight for scarce molecules of oil and gas. On our estimates, onshore US crude oil output now vastly exceeds previous growth rates in liquids and nat gas, particularly in Lower 48 states. With profitability for US domestic oil producers very high and no change in sight to US rules preventing crude oil exports, we expect WTI prices to continue to lag international prices. Indeed, we see a risk of WTI temporarily falling to $50/bbl over the next 24 months to force a slowdown in supply growth or a change in crude oil export rules.
A key point that Schels & Co. make is that the crude oil market could come to resemble the Natural Gas market. In the natural gas market, the US has natural gas coming out of its ears, as it just has way more supply coming out of the ground than it could possibly use or export. So while prices remain decent throughout much of the world, domestic natural gas prices have collapsed...
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
$4-5K per car is a matter of deleting a goodly part of the options list. Some sound systems come to almost that much, and strictly speaking, a hand-held transistor radio provides a similar basic function.
But then, I come from an era when an AM radio was an extra-cost option, and air conditioning was unheard of.
It all comes down to what one considers to be vital to continued existence. Getting from Point A to Point B at a less expensive per-mile cost is much more important than the most recent playlist as reported by MTV.
Or even tweeting from the convenience of the driver’s seat.
The 4-5K figured just seemed high to me to convert a car to natural or propane gas. I grew up driving junkers where a 4 or 8 track tape or an aftermarket FM adapter was a cool modification. A/C was a J.C. Whitney fan/defroster. :-)
Have no fear the prices will continue to grow as our corrupt politicians figure out different ways to keep their fingers in the pie.
Poert Stansberry the “Obama’s third term guy” has been remarkably prescient in his predictions.
He is saying that the US will be exporting oil and that the US treasurey will be so flush with cash whereby Obama can spread the wealth such that he can get the 22nd amendment reapealed (which I doubt).
Right now all of our terminals are set up for import not export. Which should be the right thing. Keep our domestic energy supplies for us and not export them. Let the rest of the world fend for themselves.
Sure do. Didn't know they were outlawed. They were frequent in San Diego in the mid-fifties. And gas dropped to under 20c/gallon on occasion: A boon for high school students who could put a buck's worth into the jalopy and be cruisin' for a few days. They don't call them "the good old days" for nothing.
You receive great pleasure correcting people in public.
LNG trucks and CNG cars & trucks are on the way.
Ford has a lineup of pickups (CNG); Honda has a CNG car; GE has just come out with a fueling system/pump for CNG. GM has CNG trucks.
Chesapeake is supplying the CNG for GE. Ford has just contracted with GE to make available the GE (CNG in a box) system to fleet CNG buyers.
Clean energy is creating a transnational CNG/LNG interstate corridor of fueling stations. Westport Innovations has fueling systems/engines that use CNG and partnerships with Ford,GM VOlvo, CAT, others. So CNG/LNG engines can be offered as original equipment.
Natural gas is on the way...2013 will be a huge year for the uptake of nat gas as a transportation fuel.
Yes. nobama will NEVER let this happen. $6/gal gasoline is a must have to further drive our country towards being a Turd World Banana Republic.
We did. And it was all uphill. Both ways.
As it approaches $50, the drilling is going to slow way down. When the drilling doesn't keep up with the fast falling production rates from these tight formations, the inland supply in the US is going to fall and the price will stabilize higher than $50. That price just will not support the continued investment in places like the Bakken, Eagle Ford and other shale formations.
It may be geography-dependent, but here in NE ohio, there are plenty of fleet vehicles and busses running on LNG (Liquified Natural Gas). For obvious reasons, the local NG utility has a bunch.
The big problem, as I understand it is the L in LNG. NG is methane, and holding enough to provide any reasonable range requires that it be liquified, which requires high pressures to do so and a suitable pressure vessel to carry it around. Once that’s in place, the conversion is pretty trivial, except for the cost of satisfying the EPA trolls.
Liquifying NG also requires a fair amount of energy to run the compressors.
It’s definitely do-able if there was some external factor driving a large scale conversion, but there’s a good reason liquid transportation fuels dominate the market.
LNG is not pressurized, it is cooled down to -260°F.
The pressurized systems, often 3,000~3,600 psi are CNG, compressed natural gas. It has more volume requirement but does not require cryogenics.
If oil went down to $50/barrel, the msm would shout that it’s all due to Obama’s wonderful leadership.
I remember $.13/9 gasoline.
My ‘66 Chevy 396/425 motor got eight miles to the gallon.
No worries...
Blech
In 66 in So. California gas was 26.9.
When I was paying 13.9 was in 1954!
Might get to $50/bbl, but there will be $50/bbl taxes on it.
The ironic thing is that cheap energy may be the only way to salvage the situation -- assuming Obama wants it salvaged in the first place (which, as you point out, there is ample evidence that he doesn't want to).
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