I guess so. But what if another moderate runs? There must be establishment types who think the Bush name is still poison. Jeb would split the vote, and enable a conservative to win the nomination, if conservatives could settle on one candidate.
The problem, though, is that anyone who has any kind of record in politics -- especially a voting record in Congress -- is liable to be seen as a moderate or RINO or sell-out, so you get purist fringe candidates splitting the conservative vote.
Everyone who believes in conservative principles and defends them is branded a “purist”. As if that’s a bad thing.