Posted on 11/21/2012 4:42:38 PM PST by neverdem
A funny thing happened as I was looking at the political map of this year's presidential election: It began to look like the map of the presidential election of 2004.
I'm not talking about the superficial similarity, the fact that in both elections an incumbent president beat a challenger from Massachusetts by a 51 to 48 percent popular vote margin.
I'm talking about the fact that the large majority of states voted just a little bit more Democratic in 2012 than they did in 2004.
Enough to give 2012 nominee Barack Obama 332 electoral votes, far more than 2004 nominee John Kerry's 252. But not enough to change the political balance of the nation or the various regions very much.
At current count -- the numbers may change a bit as California and a few other states waddle in with late tabulations -- Barack Obama's 50.73 percent of the popular vote exceeds John Kerry's 48.26 percent by 2.47 percentage points. (Eerily, George W. Bush's final percentage was 50.73 percent).
Using rounded-off whole percentages, Obama ran 1 or 2 points ahead of Kerry in nine states and the District of Columbia with 81 electoral votes. They include target states New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, which Kerry won, and Ohio, which he lost.
Obama ran 3 or 4 points ahead of Kerry in more states, 20. These states have 243 electoral votes. They include 2012 target states Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada and Wisconsin.
George W. Bush carried all of those target states in 2004 except Wisconsin, which he lost by 11,384 votes. Clearly, Hispanic voters, and the differences between Bush and Mitt Romney on immigration and in attitude, helped move Colorado, Nevada and, by a very narrow margin, Florida from the Republican column in 2004 to the Democratic column in 2012.
But Obama's winning percentages in these three states -- 50 percent in Florida, 51 percent in Colorado and 52 percent in Nevada -- don't suggest that Republicans will never be competitive there again.
As for Iowa and Wisconsin, they were both exceedingly close in both 2000 and 2004, both were solid for Obama in 2008, and this time they gave him 52 and 53 percent of their votes.
What about the other 21 states? Some produced big increases for Obama over Kerry -- 17 points in the president's birth state of Hawaii, 8 points in increasingly liberal Vermont.
Obama also improved on Kerry's percentage by 6 points in Maryland and Virginia, the two states most positively affected by increases in federal spending. His percentage went up only 2 points in the District of Columbia because it's hard to improve much on Kerry's 89 percent there.
The Democratic percentage also went up 5 points in California, where high taxes are driving out middle-income families, and in North Carolina, which the Obama campaign shrewdly targeted in 2008. Obama carried it by 1 point then and lost by only 2 points this time.
The Republican percentage increased by 8 points in coal-country West Virginia and in the now Clintonless Arkansas. It also increased in other states with the warlike Jacksonian tradition -- Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri, Louisiana and Oklahoma.
Obama ran 1 point lower than Kerry in the latter's Massachusetts and in Utah and Wyoming. His percentage was almost exactly the same as Kerry's in Arizona, evidence that its increasing Hispanic population is not tipping the state Democratic.
I draw two conclusions from these figures, one with some certainty and one tentatively.
One is that Democrats have a structural advantage in the Electoral College. An extra 2.46 points of the popular vote netted Obama 80 more electoral votes than Kerry. Obama won 58 percent or more in 11 states and D.C. with 163 electoral votes. He needed only 107 more to win.
In 2004, the 16 states Bush won with 58 percent or more had only 130 electoral votes. He needed 140 more to win and barely got them.
My tentative conclusion is that we may be back to the nearly even balance between the parties we saw between 1995 and 2005. Since then, we've been in a period of open-field politics, with big swings to the Democrats in 2006 and 2008 and a big swing to the Republicans in 2010.
Both sides hoped those swings would prove permanent. 2012 suggests both sides were disappointed. It looks like we're back to trench warfare politics at the national level.
Michael Barone,The Examiner's senior political analyst, can be contacted at mbarone@washingtonexaminer.com. His column appears Wednesday and Sunday, and his stories and blog posts appear at washingtonexaminer.com.
We have 30 GOP governors. They should be looking at an electoral college proportional voting system to fight against demorat vote stealing.
&&&
Not holding your breath for that one, I trust.
I’m sorry to sound so bitter, as I know I have on FR ever since November 7, but I just feel so discouraged now. The Soros Administration now has it hooks into so many things. These people are evil, but they are brilliant and have studied and plotted their way into mounting the country’s takedown. How many executive orders will we see, in the coming years, that just go right around Congressional authority?
“Romney didnt sit on his lead, he was still building it when crowley snatched it away...”
You won’t catch me defending that beast, but even so, Ryan was effectively muzzled and Romney was running a REPUBLICAN campaign from MA...which then showed up with his get out the vote implosion.
“She’s a “ladyparts voter” (new term which I take credit for coining).”
And she actually mentioned a ladypart in explaining her decision - and I’ll leave it at that.
No, I’m not holding my breath for anything. I have been as sick as you since Nov 7th. I have watched zilch TV news - nada. I even turn down the radio on the hour and half hour.
I wish I could be Felix Baumgartner, but I wouldn’t jump. I’d just stay in my balloon capsule up there happy as a clam that I jumped off the earth.
Right now I feel like a guy denied parole and have to wait out another 4 year sentence. I was so counting on that Nov 7th parole. I was beginning to taste freedom again, and the door has been slammed shut.
They are pure evil, and the republican party refuses to shovel the crap right back at them. And the idiot voters are more empowered by the word FAIR instead of the word FREE.
Maybe we should move to Singapore. It’s just been declared the least emotional city on earth.
Amen to all that you say. Except moving to Singapore. They have stolen my country, but I refuse to be evicted.
So glad I have my faith in God to sustain me.
A blessed Thanksgiving to you.
“...and the country is not evenly balanced between the two parties.”
You’re right. That explains the conservatives and patriots controlling 30 states, up from 25 in 2010.
I agree with that statement....about the "volunteers"....but the rest of the "volunteers" are MOSTLY UNION people and students (another form of a union for the demothugs). In the city where I live (a MAJOR SEIU city) we have very FEW DEM Precinct people....it's the UNIONS doing all the vote buying...and then there is the fraud...
YES...to everything you said...although I fear we’ve LOST the cultural war, and that the only thing that will help us regain our grownd is all out civil war...I pray I am wrong.
YOU have said it so well....exactly as I feel. Especially the last 2 sentences!!!
Can people stop with this “Reaganesque” pining? Ronald Reagan was a unique historical figure that will never be repeated. Even if it were to be repeated, it won’t happen in time for 2016. The Reagan phenomenon had a long lead time and there’s nobody in the GOP politics that fits the bill.
Reagan had unique personal qualities like charm and a quick wit that virtually nobody in GOP politics possesses. He also had firm values and beliefs in the American system that nobody in the GOP establishment possesses. The GOPe didn’t have them when Reagan ran for office and they don’t have them now. If you can find someone who was in the entertainment/sports field who has a long career in political activism culminating in two terms as governor of a large state who will run against incumbent President of a deeply divided party during a severe economic downturn then okay maybe. But don’t expect someone like that come along just because you want them to.
We need to cede politics at the National/Federal level and concentrate on state houses. Hear me out. It is there, at the state level, relief will come from Federal Tyranny. Secession needs to be on the table as an option too.
"Reaganesque" does not mean an exact clone of Ronald Reagan. Not sure where you get that idea. Reagan's success was not because he was an actor or a governor. Reagan's success was due to his unique ability as a conservative to connect with large numbers of voters. The great communicator who backed it up with solid conservative principles.
Reaganesque candidates with a combination of conservative idealogy and mass communication skills is exactly what we need not only for President but in the House and Senate.
Reagan’s success was not because he was an actor or a governor. Reagan’s success was due to his unique ability as a conservative to connect with large numbers of voters.
Who is trying to do that? You're missing the point. We need conservatives who can connect with large number of voters in the Presidency, House and Senate.
A blessed Thanksgiving to you too BiggRed, and hoping you don’t have too many Blue family members over for the turkey.
From the age of 6 on, I always took my son to the voting booths with me to teach him the importance of this precious right. He is slightly to the right of Attila the Hun now. Musta worked.
Thank you much and most heartedly agree with your comments on this post.
I don’t know what it will take to turn things around, but I do feel we have an advantage in the off-year elections. We kind of have two electorates now. The dembots primarily come out on the presidential years and overwhelm us.
But they are too lazy or unconcerned during the midterm elections, and that is how we make gains in the House and Senate. I don’t mind gridlock provided the pubs really dig in.
If it looks like the GOP is on a perpetual slide into presidential oblivion, those states with republican governors and legislators may consider casting their electoral votes based on congressional districts.
That way Philadelphians can vote 200% of their population but only get the electoral votes of Philly and not the whole state. I’m not crazy about the idea but that may be the only return fire we have left short of the return of Ronaldo Magnus, and I doubt if the moocher voters would understand or appreciate his greatness.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.