Romney needs to keep it down to about 100,000 in Cuyahoga to beat O in OH.
McCain couldn’t get it done. The old rule holds true - no Republican has been elected President without winning OH.
Its tough but its doable today.
One interesting observation is that the last “November 6th” Presidential win was in 1984 by none other that President Ronald Reagan.
Here’s a historical curiosity to observe this election cycle as we go out and vote.
Since election day was standardized in 1845 there have been 6 presidential elections held on November 6th and Republicans have won all six. That means TODAY, the 7th Presidential election held on this date, will either break or uphold a streak that began in 1860 with the election of Abraham Lincoln.
Starting in 1792, states had a range of dates on which to conduct presidential elections, but in 1845 Congress standardized the date so it would always be the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Since then presidential elections have been held on dates ranging from November 2nd to November 8th with each date coming up about six times in a fairly regular pattern. The date November 6th has always been a good one for Republicans:
•1860 - Abraham Lincoln over Stephen Douglas
•1888 - Benjamin Harrison over incumbent Grover Cleveland
•1900 - William McKinley over William Jennings Bryan
•1928 - Herbert Hoover over Al Smith
•1956 - Dwight Eisenhower over Adlai Stevenson
•1984 - Ronald Reagan over Walter Mondale
numbers guy, obama will carry the co by way more than 100,000 but romney needs to hold down the 69% for obama coming out of there?
HOWEVER, this assumes some things that are silly:
a) all EVs are D. Even assuming Ras's ridiculous numbers of a 60/40 split, you're looking at now a number of 144,000 to beat.
Then figure that Romney gets ANYTHING from Is (1%) you're looking at 142,000.
Slightly higher "loyalty factor" of Rs over Ds and D flips? (92% vs. 89%) adds another 2% (138,000)
This should be an easy number to overcome and it's based on all the Ds BEST projections.