Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: goldstategop
Here are the numbers so far: we need 6% advantage to overcome all early voting. (about 242,000). That would be tough, but doable (Bush won by 114,000 in 04, 170k in 2000 with a slightly larger population).

HOWEVER, this assumes some things that are silly:

a) all EVs are D. Even assuming Ras's ridiculous numbers of a 60/40 split, you're looking at now a number of 144,000 to beat.

Then figure that Romney gets ANYTHING from Is (1%) you're looking at 142,000.

Slightly higher "loyalty factor" of Rs over Ds and D flips? (92% vs. 89%) adds another 2% (138,000)

This should be an easy number to overcome and it's based on all the Ds BEST projections.

15 posted on 11/06/2012 5:21:19 AM PST by LS
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies ]


To: LS
Blogger Ali who has been on top of these numbers says the 28% is too low because they are "still counting" in SoS office.

My R source says the magic number is 6% to overcome ALL early votes (not just Ds). He bases this on the 40% number. Again, I think the "magic number" to beat is >140k today.

29 posted on 11/06/2012 6:17:03 AM PST by LS
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson