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Here are the numbers so far: we need 6% advantage to overcome all early voting. (about 242,000). That would be tough, but doable (Bush won by 114,000 in 04, 170k in 2000 with a slightly larger population).

HOWEVER, this assumes some things that are silly:

a) all EVs are D. Even assuming Ras's ridiculous numbers of a 60/40 split, you're looking at now a number of 144,000 to beat.

Then figure that Romney gets ANYTHING from Is (1%) you're looking at 142,000.

Slightly higher "loyalty factor" of Rs over Ds and D flips? (92% vs. 89%) adds another 2% (138,000)

This should be an easy number to overcome and it's based on all the Ds BEST projections.

Blogger Ali who has been on top of these numbers says the 28% is too low because they are "still counting" in SoS office.

My R source says the magic number is 6% to overcome ALL early votes (not just Ds). He bases this on the 40% number. Again, I think the "magic number" to beat is >140k today.