HOWEVER, this assumes some things that are silly:
a) all EVs are D. Even assuming Ras's ridiculous numbers of a 60/40 split, you're looking at now a number of 144,000 to beat.
Then figure that Romney gets ANYTHING from Is (1%) you're looking at 142,000.
Slightly higher "loyalty factor" of Rs over Ds and D flips? (92% vs. 89%) adds another 2% (138,000)
This should be an easy number to overcome and it's based on all the Ds BEST projections.
My R source says the magic number is 6% to overcome ALL early votes (not just Ds). He bases this on the 40% number. Again, I think the "magic number" to beat is >140k today.