Posted on 11/06/2012 3:21:09 AM PST by Arec Barrwin
@fivethirtyeight Here, you'll see a story of both Dem turnout drop AND GOP rise. Dems 5.7% '08 adv. down to 0.4%. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjYj9mXElO_QdFJPNUt4U3F5MkxteTBoS29fSGN1S0E#gid=0 … Expand 2h Dave Wasserman Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
By my calc, in '08, 24.8% of registered voters in Obama's OH counties voted early, 19.1% in McCain. Today, 21.7% Obama and 21.3% McCain Expand 2h Dave Wasserman Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@fivethirtyeight OH data seems high quality, and we're possibly on track for a significantly different turnout model vs. '08...(1/2)
“we’re possibly on track for a significantly different turnout model vs. ‘08...(1/2)”
So you mean that those stupid D+6 polls are....wrong???
NO WAY!
In other words, if the GOP has the edge in the electorate and its R+1 or R+2 today, O’s 2008 winning margin can be wiped out and Romney should carry the Buckeye State by five points. Its all about the turnout now, stupid!
Turning out and taking photos! Go buckeyes.
The link doesn’t work.
Again, the link does NOT work!
There is 100% chance that Nate Silver will be crying like a baby by midnight.
Those are the pictures i want.
If I read this correctly there’s a 5pt difference, which if applied to the election day turnout means Obama wins by 2pt.
Now I know that’s not a fair comparison because GOP turnout has been historically better on election day than in early voting.
But it raises the question of what happens if it turns out that the increase in early voting is due to GOP voters shifting to early turnout and not indicative of much of an overall turnout increase?
Thanks for the link. Dem counties are down by 4.10% and Repubs are up 14.39% in the early voting. I don’t know if that’s enough of a swing to make all the difference, but it could be. If there is enthusiasm for R/R today, then Romney could win the state. I am hopeful, but not overly optimistic yet.
Just how many of them were actually votes for Romney?
I saw some numbers somewhere that said 99% of Republicans are projected to vote for Romney, but only 90-95% of Democrats will vote for Obama. I can't remember where I saw those numbers -- anyone else see them?
And in a state like Ohio, with the widespread disatisfaction over Obama's war on coal, healthcare mandates, gay marriage stance, etc., the percentage of Democrats voting for Romney could be a lot higher.
That would be nice but what I really want to see in addition is a moustache free David Axelrod with Obama losing at least one of Michigan, Minnesota or Pennsylvania.
Early voting is their strength, not ours.
The 260,000 advantage they had in the EV in 08 has been eliminated and it is likely that the Romney ground game will take Ohio outright today.
Hopefully all those banked Dem votes aren’t of the yellow dog variety and a decent percentage, I’d be happy with 10-20% have awakened to the disaster that is Barack Hussein Obama. I shudder to think so many of our fellow citizen are so truly delusional to vote for this commie muzzie.
We might be hearing about Romney Democrats in years to come, the step-children of the Reagan Democrats.
Go Republican Buckeyes!
Say what?
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