Posted on 11/05/2012 10:37:02 PM PST by Steelfish
Ohio: Romney 49%, Obama 49%
An Unpredictable End to a Very Predictable Election By Scott Rasmussen Virginia: Romney 50%, Obama 48% Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 49% Sign up for free daily updates
November 05
The pivotal presidential state of Ohio remains all tied up on the eve of Election Day.
The final Election 2012 Rasmussen Reports survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Mitt Romney and President Obama each earning 49% support. One percent (1%) favors some other candidate in the race, and another one percent (1%) is undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Ohio is still one of eight Toss-Up states in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections, along with Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia and Wisconsin. Polls in Ohio close at 7:30 pm Eastern tomorrow. If Romney wins Virginia and Florida, he also will need to win either Ohio or Wisconsin to be on track to capture the White House.
The race in Ohio was tied late last week after Romney posted a slight 50% to 48% advantage a few days earlier. The candidates have been within two percentage points of one another or less in every survey in Ohio since May.
Forty percent (40%) of likely voters in the Buckeye State have already voted. Obama leads 60% to 37% among these voters.
Ninety-three percent (93%) have made up their minds whom they will vote for, and its Obama 50%, Romney 49% in this group.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
This differential must be just from polling by Rasmussen, not actual votes recorded by the State. That number doesn’t seem right.
Obama’s advantage in early voting in 2008 was less than 20% over McCain. And the final tally was only 4.6% margin for Obama in 2008.
As of Friday, the early votes were about 28% of the 2008 totals, and the early voting advantage is less than 10% Obama. We know that the early vote advantage has been cut dramatically in 2012 from 2008. And the projected margin for Romney on those yet to vote is 13%, which will make his margin more than enough.
From what I read, they don't. They go by zip code demographics.
I have heard Rove and others say that as well.
If correct, Romney should win Ohio convincingly.
I don’t understand why there is such a large discrepancy with what the pollsters are reporting though. Not all of them are being deliberately biased, especially not Rasmussen, yet most of them are reporting very similar results.
I agree the number of the government tit has increased, but I don’t think it will tip the scales. (Fraud could however) Obama absolutely has a chance to win Ohio. However, being Obama is chained to the worst economy since the WWII, and early voting looks much better than 2008, I think we have gained a number of new votes.
The unions may have ‘blown their wad’ for 0bama in early voting. This may account for the percentage difference. The meat and potatoes voters come tomorrow.. Republicans and Independents, probably record turnout. Does anyone know if that 60/37 break is correct in early voting though? I remember that old saying, “it’s not who votes, it’s who COUNTS the votes that matters”
The only problem I have with these numbers is that the DEMs not early voting may show up on election day, and those REPs who are early voting would have shown up on election day. Sorry, but I don’t have a warm fuzzy about OH. My nerves are about shot.
Never.
It’s a mix of things.
close race = money
lazy = just use the 2008 numbers
bias = the MSM really does prefer Obama
Because Rasmussen is still using a +2 Dem model, although the electorate is expected to be +2 Rep or more. Throw in the fact Republicans have a 350,000 advantage in Ohio, Obama is losing Indy’s, and many like Rove are rationale to believe Romney will carry Ohio.
relax. it’s not a done deal, but things look good. i’d rather be in Romney’s shoes than Obama’s.
But, what is that last word that runs through their mind before they make their decision and hit the button or pull the lever? E C O N O M Y!
What a difference one post makes. Thanks.
GOP early vote GOTV efforts are focused on “low-propensity” voters not Election Day voters.
There is a lot of information and numbers coming from the Romney camp, and a lot of silence and calls for “calmness” from Chicago.
At this point we’re just evaluating polls, D+ polls..so, wouldn’t surprise me if the independent/undecided voters are being underestimated as well. There’s no way that 2008 R, independent voters are swinging to O..maybe a few but I see the opposite & those votes going to Romney. Funny how you’re hardly hearing anything about the influential independent voters from the LSM this election. In 2008, all you’d hear is how independents & even some voters flocked to O, not this time.
At this point we’re just evaluating polls, D+ polls..so, wouldn’t surprise me if the independent/undecided voters are being underestimated as well. There’s no way that 2008 R, independent voters are swinging to O..maybe a few but I see the opposite & those votes going to Romney. Funny how you’re hardly hearing anything about the influential independent voters from the LSM this election. In 2008, all you’d hear is how independents & even some R voters flocked to O, not this time.
this says a lot! thanks...
Because Rasmussen and the other polsters have been saying so many different things that no matter what happens they can pull one of their polls out and say “See? We told you so”, I’m putting more trust in Rove and Morris.
Rasmussen’s state polling is not as sharp as his fix on National Numbers and the Voter Electorate.
Just the opposite. Early voting is the Dems entire gameplay. That’s why they have those rock star rallies all the time. Get their flock to see Obama or clinton and a rock musician, then herd them to an early voting site.
Mccains campaign was pitiful and he still won ohio by 75,000 in Election Day voting.
The evangelical vote as well. Not sure how many are in Ohio.
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