Posted on 11/05/2012 10:37:02 PM PST by Steelfish
Ohio: Romney 49%, Obama 49%
An Unpredictable End to a Very Predictable Election By Scott Rasmussen Virginia: Romney 50%, Obama 48% Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 49% Sign up for free daily updates
November 05
The pivotal presidential state of Ohio remains all tied up on the eve of Election Day.
The final Election 2012 Rasmussen Reports survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Mitt Romney and President Obama each earning 49% support. One percent (1%) favors some other candidate in the race, and another one percent (1%) is undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Ohio is still one of eight Toss-Up states in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections, along with Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia and Wisconsin. Polls in Ohio close at 7:30 pm Eastern tomorrow. If Romney wins Virginia and Florida, he also will need to win either Ohio or Wisconsin to be on track to capture the White House.
The race in Ohio was tied late last week after Romney posted a slight 50% to 48% advantage a few days earlier. The candidates have been within two percentage points of one another or less in every survey in Ohio since May.
Forty percent (40%) of likely voters in the Buckeye State have already voted. Obama leads 60% to 37% among these voters.
Ninety-three percent (93%) have made up their minds whom they will vote for, and it’s Obama 50%, Romney 49% in this group.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Obama won independents in 2008...he will not this year...not even close. He has a horrible economy on his back and Republicans have the enthusiasm gap advantage. People need to relax, nothing more.
Forty percent (40%) of likely voters in the Buckeye State have already voted. Obama leads 60% to 37% among these voters.
Projected 50% for Obama and votes counted equals 60%?
Projected 49% for Romney and votes counted equals 37%?
Does this mean the ACTUAL didn't match the projected? So, a voter fraud swing for 0bama of 10%? Am I reading this wrong?
There's something wrong with those numbers. If that was indeed the case, that would be the headline in the Rasmussen article. And more would be made of it in the article. But it isn't.
Newt is the only one who has pointed out that democrats voting early does not mean they’re voting for obama. I doubt very seriously if they’re voting 100% for the Kenyan. But I am sure 100% of the republicans are voting for Romney.
Mitt will win those too.
The Democrat EV was down by 180,000 votes!
Perhaps the original numbers are wrong.
Perhaps what we are seeing is a poll participation skew. The other side tends to cooperate with pollsters more so the early voters are being filtered this way.
I would love for Romney to win WI and IA (along with FL, NC, VA, and CO), as that would make OH not required. What is bothersome about OH is the long period of time they are allowed to count provisional ballots. I would rather not wait that long to find out Romney won. So, taking WI and IA on Election Day would be great!
And there are more motivated Republican voters as well.
Further analysis here.
1. Sunday one day poll
2. Early vote over sampled by 10% giving Obama an extra 1.5%
3. RNC claims a margin of 364k MORE high propensity voters than Dems available on Election Day.
4. Rove says that the Obama edge in EV is 75000 votes.
Early vote so they can see how many to manufacture..that’s why Romney needs to win big! can’t believe there are still people who are still undecided? Romney should win this thing even considering 47% will go to Obummer...50%+ Romney.
How sad is that? almost half of this county might/will vote for O just because of handouts, welfare etc..disgraceful.
How funny that people forget that. These numbers are merely by party affiliation, according to who they are voting for. Romney will win more crossover votes and significantly more of the indy vote. I’m not concerned until 95% of the vote is in.
I know, you're right. I agree. I'm not saying Obama will win Ohio. All I'm saying is when you compare 2012 to 2008 you must also take into consideration that Obama is the incumbent this time, he spent the last 4 years growing government (votes) and entitlement programs (more votes).
“Not” according to I meant.
But lets get real, pollsters play these games every election. LAST MINUTE SHOCKING POLL!!!! I am getting old enough, and have seen it enough, to stop taking it as seriously. Tomorrow night we will know.
Rove said today something that is consistent with what he’s been tracking in Ohio. He said that as of two days ago, I believe, democrat early voting was 187,000 below what it was in 2008, and that republican voting was up 75,000. That’s a swing of, theoretically, 262,000. Obama won Ohio by 260,000, maybe 263,000. So, if Rove’s numbers are true, and I have no idea why they wouldn’t be — because that’s numbers available to him, I think, and not from polling — Romney is in very good shape in Ohio.....even McCain got tens of thousands more votes on election day in Ohio than did Obama.
One odd thing. The number of self-report early voters in Ohio is always way higher than the actual Secretary of State’s numbers.
Perhaps they have returned their ballots by mail but they haven’t been received yet. Or, perhaps they are lying.
If they are lying, then the likely voter models in Ohio are wrong in our favor. On the other hand, if those numbers are accurate, then a 20%+ lead is going to be very difficult to overcome on election day.
Uh, since when are early votes and provisional votes counted, and the results released, before election day??
Anybody who is “undecided” at this point will be voting for Obama IMO.
You have to be pretty stupid to be undecided at this point or even 2 months ago. The stupid votes go to Obama unless they’re so stupid they misread the name and accidentally vote for Romney.
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