Rove said today something that is consistent with what he’s been tracking in Ohio. He said that as of two days ago, I believe, democrat early voting was 187,000 below what it was in 2008, and that republican voting was up 75,000. That’s a swing of, theoretically, 262,000. Obama won Ohio by 260,000, maybe 263,000. So, if Rove’s numbers are true, and I have no idea why they wouldn’t be — because that’s numbers available to him, I think, and not from polling — Romney is in very good shape in Ohio.....even McCain got tens of thousands more votes on election day in Ohio than did Obama.
I have heard Rove and others say that as well.
If correct, Romney should win Ohio convincingly.
I don’t understand why there is such a large discrepancy with what the pollsters are reporting though. Not all of them are being deliberately biased, especially not Rasmussen, yet most of them are reporting very similar results.
The unions may have ‘blown their wad’ for 0bama in early voting. This may account for the percentage difference. The meat and potatoes voters come tomorrow.. Republicans and Independents, probably record turnout. Does anyone know if that 60/37 break is correct in early voting though? I remember that old saying, “it’s not who votes, it’s who COUNTS the votes that matters”
The only problem I have with these numbers is that the DEMs not early voting may show up on election day, and those REPs who are early voting would have shown up on election day. Sorry, but I don’t have a warm fuzzy about OH. My nerves are about shot.
This is a set of numbers I’ve also been following - and read Rove’s article. Also - the aggregate he used matches what happens when you add it up from the spreadsheets from individual counties. (Rove’s not wrong.)
That said, I only post this for one reason: As of last week, emailing friends, I had to keep saying ‘virtually overcomes the entire 2008 early lead’ because the net dem loss was about 257K, just short.
Alas!!!! The net loss for Dems in early voting and absentees as of this morning actually overcame the 2008 winning margin. Something like 263K to 262.4.
You are now free to use one word like “obliterated” rather than having to hedge with phrases like “virtually overcame.”
Rove said the same this this past Saturday.