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Here is my attempt to simplify what we need to be watching for on Election Day:

First, we can start by assuming that Romney will win every state that McCain won. That will give Romney 180 electoral college points.

There are a number of states that are considered to be toss-ups to some degree. Obama won all of these in 2008:

Ohio has 18 points and McCain lost it by 4%.

Pennsylvania has 20 points and McCain lost it by 10.4%.

North Carolina has 15 points and McCain lost it by .4%.

Florida has 29 points and McCain lost it by 2.5%.

Indiana has 11 points and McCain lost it by .9%.

Virginia has 13 points and McCain lost it by 6.3%.

Iowa has 6 points and McCain lost it by 9.3%.

Colorado has 9 points and McCain lost it by 8.6%.

New Hampshire has 4 points and McCain lost it by 9.5%.

Wisconsin has xx points and McCain lost it by 13.9%.

Since the states that McCain won carry 180 electoral college points, the math tells us that Romney needs to win an additional 90 points to reach the required minimum total of 270.

That list I created above accounts for 135 electoral college points, and Romney needs to win 90 of them (assuming he holds all of McCain’s states. That means that we simply need to observe and see that Obama does not obtain more than 45 of those votes above.

I am not here to make predictions, but thought this layout may help others have a better idea of what is going on. I know there are a lot of people here that have tremendous skills at this, but this seems to simplify it for people like me that want the simple facts.

I have thick skin, and easily accept corrections to anything I have posted here.