Posted on 11/04/2012 7:57:34 PM PST by Arthurio
· President Obama and Governor Romney are in a dead heat nationwide, each with 48 percent of the vote.
· President Obama leads by 8 percentage points (52 to 44 percent) among early voters, while Governor Romney leads President Obama by 2 percentage points among those who have yet to cast their ballots.
· 46 percent approve of the President’s job performance, while 49 percent do not approve of the president’s performance.
· Similarly 45 percent of likely voters nationwide think the country is headed in the right direction, while 47 percent think it is headed in the wrong direction.
(Excerpt) Read more at gravispolls.com ...
Absolutely. Didn’t Gallup figure R+3?
If they came out and declared the winner, and were wrong, they would have egg on their face.
But if they declare it even steven, that way whoever wins, they merely say it was because the other side did not come out in sufficient numbers.
Win/Win, except they are wusses for not committing.
Oh, BTW, Romney, walking away, to the chagrin of some even on this site.
This poll is a disaster for Obama.
The sample is 64% white. Whites were 74% of the electorate in 2008 and McCain won them 55-43.
Do the math.
Almost mirrors the CNN poll internals.
NO WAY that Romney doesn’t win
Right, only about 32 hours until the final day election polls open up. Bye Obama.
The tentativeness and inconsistency of these polls reminds me of the final days of the ‘80 campaign, but with a heaping helping of PC Affirmative Action White guilt.
If the turnout is even R+1, this thing is going to be a landslide.
For sure. I’ve gotta believe based on the signs I’ve seen there will be a small Republican turnout advasntage.
I am no expert on polling and would welcome any insight re this question: is it possible that all the D+ polls that also show independents heavy for Romney are classifying more soft R’s than soft D’s as independents? The reason I ask is that the polls with the highest D+ also seem to show the highest independents for Romney. I agree that PPP can’t be trusted. The thing that I can’t get is that the breakdowns are all over the map but we can’t seem to get a lead for Romney no matter how the internals break out.
Not easy to know. Their internals aren’t that detailed. But certainly what you suggest is a possibility. Hell, anythings possible this time around. For instance wouldn’t it be something if Romney loses Virginia and wins Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan? LOL
I’d take WI, MN and MI. I have real hope for WI. As for MI, I grew up there and can remember the first Governor Romney. That was a different time and place. I will be shocked and proud if MI goes Romney.
Holy $&?€#...did anyone notice the biggest problem with this poll - much worse even than the D+8?
They have the white voting percentage at only 64%!!
This is insanely low. 2008 was 78% by comparison.
I won’t often say this, but THIS poll is complete crap.
Hank
Just noticed that they have an “other” option for race. Most polls do not. That may be the reason...
My gut instinct is that all these polls are BS. I really feel like most Americans are ready to kick him out. I don’t really understand how any one other than the loony left would even consider voting for him.
Then I hear people who I know have above average intelligence, say they think he hasn’t done so bad, and that really makes me very uncertain.
Hey here is the kicker - another poll oversampling Democrats by +8 - and Bamster still cannot crack 50%!
I feel pretty good about tomorrow.
Even with the 2008 turnout model they’re still using, O cannot get over the top.
When an incumbent President is polling under 50% the final day before the election, that’s all that really matters.
My understanding as to why the numbers on so many of these polls look out of whack is because the pollsters are not weighting the polls to an specific previous model.
If a poll, say this one, decides they will contact 874 voters and ask them a series of questions, they will accept the input of the 1st 874 recipients of the call who agree to answer the questions. They will then break down the demographics of those folks as to Party, race, etc. So if of the 874 who answered the questions only 64% identified themselves as white, that is the number they report. Same for party affiliation, and all the other demographics they wish to report on.
This is what Gallup says they do and have always done, explaining they have never weighted their polls for any demographics.
In an age where media is not trusted and Conservatives especially may feel their time will be wasted answering questions because the results will be skewed, many simply hang up. This would mean an unbalanced and unrepresentative sample is used to assemble the final results of the poll since more Dems than Rep chose to take part.
As everyone one rightly says, the only poll which matters is on election day and the party which turns out more voters wins.
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