Posted on 11/03/2012 6:56:11 AM PDT by PJ-Comix
President Obama is now better than a 4-in-5 favorite to win the Electoral College, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. His chances of winning it increased to 83.7 percent on Friday, his highest figure since the Denver debate and improved from 80.8 percent on Thursday.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...
I am going to record MSNBC all of Tuesday evening. It will be great fun to watch their faces get longer and longer as the evening progresses.
Yes, I WILL enjoy going to work on Wednesday morning! Unless the electronic voting machines flip the election. PLEASE TELL ME I’M CRAZY! I WANT TO BE WRONG!
Nate is sort of correct, he just got the names backwards. The media polls that his tribe puts out ARE slanted and in order for Bonzo to win those polls have to be correct.
Which they may be. The special sauce is called “Massive Democrat Vote Fraud”.
But I’m not worried; political experts on here have told me that the Romney campaign knows EXACTLY what they are doing and they are 100% confident that all the marginal states are going to vote for Romney, it’s going to be an early night on Tuesday, we’ll take back the Senate, pick up 20 seats in the House, and Mitt may wind up with 350 electoral votes!
OK, so they’re as delusional as Nate Silver.
Silver seems to acknowledge that Romney may win the popular vote count, but claims that the Electoral College math favors Obama. I hope I’m being too pessimistic, but I think it will be difficult for Romney to win more that 257 electoral votes.
I wish Romney would swing through the state, Michigan, on his way to PA. The sentiment here in the school where I work (big union town outside Detroit) is going against 0bama. I know it could be done with a little push. I’m going to the Romney HQ today to see if they need any volunteer workers.
Mr. Silver reminds me of the one-hit wonders who parlay it into a career.
F. Lee Bailey made it big because of the Sam Sheppard case at the age of 32, and living off that one victory for an entire professional career.
Jeanne Dixon made thousands of predictions, and one about JFK getting assassinated moved her to the front of the pack of celebrity psychics, where she would spend her remaining days making bad predictions for the Star newspaper and spitting out astrology columns.
Zogby had a couple of good years in ‘96 and ‘00, but now is below average. Why is that? Did success go to his head? Not necessarily. Even statisticians are subject to variation in outcomes. The “good year” really could just be statistical variation, making him no better than anybody else. Or, their statistical model could be obsolete.
Barone might be over the hill, but probably isn’t; he has been around long enough to have learned how things work, including structural changes. Silver has not. He may be talented, but more likely he has put too much confidence in bad data. Or ... he may be happy to carry water because he has already had his one good year, and can play off of it no matter how many times he is wrong, like Dick Morris, Jeanne Dixon and F. Lee Bailey. He might want to be a hero of the left more than a truly respected statistician. If he’s wrong this time ... on to the next election. All will be forgiven by his pals.
Amazing, in that he has to ignore a lot of early voting data, which is much more robust than polling.
I remember that those who claimed to be unbiased were unanimously picking 0bama in 2008. In this one, some polls and some people’s careers (Morris, Rove, Barone, Intrade people, Silver...) will fade away forever if they pick wrongly. Never seen it like this before.
According to an analysis by EightThirtyFive, Nate Silver has a 92.78% chance of being wrong.
Romney could still lose. I don’t think Obama is a near inevitable as Silver suggests. I’m not sure I want to see the returns Tuesday night.
What kind of prognostication record does this character have?
You are right, he IS their security blanket. All the lib publications, DU, Huffpo, Mother Jones, etc, ALL of them are ignoring all other polls, ignoring the crowds at Romney events, ignoring the tiny crowds at Obama events - and placing ALL their hope in Nate Silver - and a few other guru type numbers crunchers.
This is who liberals are. They live in a bubble of academia, stats, and totally divorce themselves from the real world. They will be a BIG target in my book, which will go on sale NOV 8TH - describing how the media bubble has been wrong for four solid years, and that Obama’s loss was always in the cards.
I will poke a LOT of fun at Mr. Silver and his legions of clueless followers.
We had a mock election in our elementary school on Friday, probably a little more black kids than white, and 0bama won in a landslide. You could hear the cheering coming from all the classrooms all over. My 4th graders jumped out of their seats, fist pumps, shouting “Yeah! 0bama won! 0bama won!” After a minute it died down and I said to the class, you do realize he didn’t REALLY win, right? The election is on Tuesday. They kind of looked at me funny. But the point is, I do believe it will be HUGLY disappointing and there will be a LOT of anger expressed. Wednesday will be an interesting day. I look forward to our class discussion in Morning Meeting.
I see from the local news last night, the Detroit news polling shows prop 2 losing even in Detroit. I assume it will take the other pro union proposals down with it.
Should be real interesting to see how the public sector unionistas react to such a repudiation.
Nate Silver is the Bev Harris of 2012.
The exit polls will likely all show the kenyan winning all over.If that is the case and Romney wins, especially if the touch screen voting machines are rigged to the extent that early reports from 6 states might suggest, then look for an attempt to make their own Justice Roberts to decide the election.
Not rioting, though that will surely be included to influence Justice Roberts.
If Silver gets this one right he would become the definitive political oracle for liberals. He could probably be wrong for the next forty years and they’d still listen to him.
If he gets it wrong, it’s going to be fascinating to see how liberals process it.
The gay radical former daily kozer is mentally unhinged just like his employer !
Nate little model is a collection of skewed left wing media polls .
How brilliant and original !
This hoax has run
Her gay little scam into the deep blue sea .
Good riddance !
They won' be surprised and they will be ready withtheir lawyers to try to reverse.
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