Daily RAS Official Thread ping!
If The President gained anything from Sandy, I would expect today to reflect the peak effect. I think his micro bounce is fading.
AS far as polling goes, definitely some stalled momentum for Romney the last few days. Indy’s seem to be getting tighter in several polls. Whether is is hurricane sandy or just the normal movement of the campaign, I don’t know.
I just think as Barone said, the fundamentals all favor Romney. The enthusiasm gap is there for the republicans. Early voting, which is MUCH more accurate than any poll right now, favors Romney. And I believe the GOP turnout will swamp things on Tuesday night.
The Romney campaign is acting like a winner. Drawing crowds 10x Obama. Romney is expanding into Blue State, and Obama is quickly abandoning purple states. Romney is painting a positive and uplifting vision for America. Obama’s “loins” close is pretty petty and bitter.
I always felt if Romney went into election down 2-3, he would still win. Looks like we are going in with Romney tied to slightly ahead. Regardless of the head to head poll, Obama cannot get above 47-48%. Carville even said the incumbent does not improve from his final poll numbers. I still feel very confident.
Yup, Obama is almost certainly seeing a Sandy bounce. It’s small, but in a race that is nearly tied it’s meaningful. We’ve had our Act of God/October Surprise this time around in hurricane Sandy and it seems to have helped Hussein quite a lot.