Posted on 11/03/2012 6:36:26 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
Saturday, November 03, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows the race tied, with President Obama and Mitt Romney each attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are still undecided. See daily tracking history.
Forty-six percent (46%) are certain they will vote for Romney, while 45% are sure they will vote for the president.
For most of the year, Rasmussen Reports has conducted 500 survey interviews per night and reported the results on a three-day rolling average basis. For the final week of the campaign, we are conducting 1,000 survey interviews per night.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
He is up 5 with Independents but behind 10 with women
I am now a bit suspicious of the numbers here. The Governor is getting LESS support from Republicans (87%) than the President is getting from Democrats (89%)
Sounds a bit odd. The “Broken Glass Conservative” effect seems to be not captured here
Also, the President finally cracked the 50% mark in approval. He now stands at 51%. This is definitely post Sandy and post Governor Christie
The Presidential approval index is -8%
The right track/wrong track is 40/54 nationally but 45/45 for Asians/Hispanics
On a mathematical note, the Governor’s raw numbers are still higher than the President, his numbers are closer to 49% but rounding down reduces it to a tie
I heard yesterday that Rasmussen had increased his party breakdown to D+4 instead of the D+2 he was at last weekend.
This is NOT confirmed (as NHWinGut is on sick leave) but if so, that alone explains the 2% shift
As a comparison point, there was a poll out in PA yesterday by a well respected firm that shows the Governor ahead of the President by 4.
Also, there was the massive rally held by the Governor yesterday in OH, which may have pulled in over 35,000 people
I am not going to say that Scott Rasmussen is deliberately skewing this poll. He is WELL RESPECTED and I truly enjoy his polls. However, even the best of us make a mistake now and then.
Yesterday's OH poll by Scott Rasmussen was widely criticized for the Independent numbers. There seems to be an "anomaly" here
I guess on TUE we will find out who was right. This is the MOST difficult election I have ever covered. The polls are everywhere and analyzing the internals is becoming very difficult. Let us count the various problems we are dealing with in all these polls:
72 hours to go!! We are almost there!
More soon! NOTE: Many of these numbers are internal and are not on the link above
Daily RAS Official Thread ping!
what is the raw number?
Obamugabe at -8¿ Did America suddenly decide it wants Obamacare??
Ugh.
If The President gained anything from Sandy, I would expect today to reflect the peak effect. I think his micro bounce is fading.
I agree at first blus there is something that doesn’t make sense in this week’s trends, why would republican support for Romney suddenly decline. There are countless examples of democrats unenthusiastic or voting Romney, virtually none on the reverse side.
Was hoping to see a tick back up today to 49, but I think the news yesterday was denominated by how bad things have deteriorated in Staten Island and the growing discontent among hurricane victims. Seems crazy that this is somehow helping Obama, other than the fax that it mostly took Romney out of the news cycle completely.
This is going to be the longest four days EVER.
I sent the following to Rasmussen from their site:
Dear Sir/Madam,
Several days ago a message appeared on your site saying the daily tracking would continue despite the storm which has had a devastating effect on the tri-State area. The reasoning you gave was the calls being made were coming from areas outside those which were devastated by the storm.
It is my opinion the place from which the calls are made is of little consequence but where they are made TO is what is most important. With power lost to about 10 million people and cell service down across the region (I live in NJ) your polling should have been suspended as was that of Gallup and IBD/TIPP. There is no way a representative number said to comprise the opinion of a nation can be accurate when such a huge number of people are either unavailable or not disposed to answer a pollster coherently in the midst of a tragedy.
Gallup has resumed their polling but with the explanation the results will be carefully screened to determine accuracy possibly influenced by the storm. They seem to be saying they may not even report the results on Monday the 5th of November or if they do it will be with a strong caveat.
I would like to see Rasmussen (suspend or qualify the results) do the same because as you know a polling result can have a real affect on turnout and should it be incorrect the result could be harmful to the candidate on the wrong end of the horse race number.
Regards,
Yes, i suspected Rasmussen increased his D sample, maybe because of the storm as he is not operationg out of NJ at present, i think all his polls are whacky at present, he’s basically putting everything at a tie.
It will all come down to turnout...I can’t see anyone being swayed at this late hour.
Its garbage.
Its going to be even or R+1 or R+2
Ras - you’re full of horses-—t this morning!
Hopefully.
We can also hope that the obvious actual failure of FEMA gets reported in the press. It is hard to ignore starving people in NJ and NY. If so, the micro-bounce should dissipate rapidly.
AS far as polling goes, definitely some stalled momentum for Romney the last few days. Indy’s seem to be getting tighter in several polls. Whether is is hurricane sandy or just the normal movement of the campaign, I don’t know.
I just think as Barone said, the fundamentals all favor Romney. The enthusiasm gap is there for the republicans. Early voting, which is MUCH more accurate than any poll right now, favors Romney. And I believe the GOP turnout will swamp things on Tuesday night.
The Romney campaign is acting like a winner. Drawing crowds 10x Obama. Romney is expanding into Blue State, and Obama is quickly abandoning purple states. Romney is painting a positive and uplifting vision for America. Obama’s “loins” close is pretty petty and bitter.
I always felt if Romney went into election down 2-3, he would still win. Looks like we are going in with Romney tied to slightly ahead. Regardless of the head to head poll, Obama cannot get above 47-48%. Carville even said the incumbent does not improve from his final poll numbers. I still feel very confident.
I am amused by poll threads and people that hang their enthusiasm on them. Do you really think people in a large sample change their mind that readily? Does that pass the logic test? Let’s get more specific, does really any Romney voter think OMG there is Obungo with Christie..I am changing my vote. Nonsensical isn’t it? Oh well I guess why we have FR and poll threads with the requisite Concern Trolls. I can’t wait to electon day, to end all of this.
If its a heavily Republican electorate, none of the pollsters saw it coming!
I don’t see any intensity or passion for Obama. This poll is skewed to the Democrats.
I can guarantee its way off! Look at the weekend rallies and tell me who has the drive, the passion and the desire to win!
What concerns me most is the approval rating increase in these final days.
Anyone know when Gallup is releasing its final number?
You are discounting Sandy and the Crispy Creme Christie endorsement. It was HEAVILY promoted by the MSM, and CNN showed that Obama earned a 78% - 8% approval of his handling of the crisis - before it even began!
Other than elections with viable third party candidates does anyone out there remember an incumbent at 48% 3 days prior to the election winning?
We need to start prayer vigils that start election eve and last until 6:30 AM when the polls open on Tues.
I agree with you .
Ras polling model has been odd for awhile .
His internals do not match the results .
Something is wacky .
But the old reporter Mark Twain said it best
There are lies , bigger lies , and then statistics !
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