Rasmussen Daily: SAT: 11/03: R:48 O:48 Obama -8% : THREE Days Left!

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 11/03/2012 | Rasmussen Reports

[SoftwareEngineer]

Saturday, November 03, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows the race tied, with President Obama and Mitt Romney each attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are still undecided. See daily tracking history.

Forty-six percent (46%) are certain they will vote for Romney, while 45% are sure they will vote for the president.

For most of the year, Rasmussen Reports has conducted 500 survey interviews per night and reported the results on a three-day rolling average basis. For the final week of the campaign, we are conducting 1,000 survey interviews per night.

[wolfman23601]

He actually increased the sample well before the storm.

[VanDeKoik]

So I suppose this is going to be the 8 hour home to the concern trolls. Well lets get their standard boo hoo replies out of the way...



UGH
CRAP
< WE ARE LOST
I CANT BELIEVE PEOPLE LOVE OBAMA
IM GOING TO CRY
AMERICA IS DOOMED
ITS ALL THE PEOPLE ON WELFARE

Blah blah blah.

While the actual candidates are using time and resources to get people to the polls, FR has to deal with a weekend of these people flooding every discussion with their nonsense.

This weekend is about getting pumped, not weeping over poll A or B because they are not driving events now, they are there for entertainment, and apparently to provide really unstable people a reason to waste our time on FR whining about it.

[GoCards]

The trend is not our friend right now. Amazed at how bipolar Americans are. I just assume folks that change one day to the next, stay the hell home. They are going to get us killed, iddiots

[goldstategop]

Why on earth would you take a poll with bad data and a flawed turnout model as gospel?

The pollsters are ALL wrong. If this election were really close, we’d be seeing it in a renewed Obama momentum. It simply isn’t there!

Who are you going to believe - lying pollsters like Ras or the ground game?

God gave you a brain - use it!

[SoftwareEngineer]

Perdogg,

I will do the math later today but, back of the hand math again suggests it is about a 0.8 point advantage for the Governor

[scooby321]

State Polls are friend

Florida 6

NC over

Virginia Over

Ohio looks great

Pa looks good

[goldstategop]

That’s because you place faith in a model with skewed Democratic turnout. As for the news you cite, its probably statistical noise.

It only reinforces my point that ALL of the polls - apart from Gallup - are unreliable.

[snarkytart]

Yea but bad news yesterday is not going to show today even if a poll was conducted last night. News (good or bad) really takes a couple of days to show in these rolling average polls.
By Monday we should see whether the bad news from NY and NJ will have an impact. Same with the uptick in unemployment number Friday. Oh sure the media tried to spin it good for zer0 but the rate still went up and that’s what people see and remember.

[scooby321]

Sandy the media os covering because of where it is in New York and people see no Federal Government

Watching a man now on TV calling it KATRINA

[Free America52]

My theory is a little more cynical. Maybe Rasmussen is just trying to avoid the special “attention” that Gallup received from the DOJ and is trying to ride this out under the radar until after the election.

[JLAGRAYFOX]

All pollsters are hedging their bets. They have lost it!!! Not one of any respected caliber has made a prediction. I would ignore them all and just go out and vote for Romney/Ryan because they are going to win handily!!!

[teg_76]

Probably Monday...I read on their website they’re doing a final Thurs-Sunday poll...

[SoftwareEngineer]

It comes out on Monday, although, now I am hearing that they will poll on Monday also, and release another poll on Tuesday

[palmer]

The only people who could be swayed now are idiots who might as well vote Obama. The turnout is key like you said. Look for the Media to put out turnout-depressing stories. For example an NYT editorial asks if Romney is unravelling.

[ladyjane]

These polls should be outlawed.

The MSM use these polls to sway the voters.

In a better world, presidential campaigns should have a spending limit of 1M and no polling data should be released. (think of all the money the MSM would lose if they couldn’t air those ads)

[FerociousRabbit]

“I am amused by poll threads and people that hang their enthusiasm on them. Do you really think people in a large sample change their mind that readily? Does that pass the logic test? Let’s get more specific, does really any Romney voter think OMG there is Obungo with Christie..I am changing my vote. Nonsensical isn’t it? Oh well I guess why we have FR and poll threads with the requisite Concern Trolls. I can’t wait to electon day, to end all of this.”

I saw a skinny black dude standing next to a fat white dude on TV. I am voting for the fat white dude for prez. Huh? He’s not running? Okay, I’ll vote for the skinny black dude because, well... he was standing next to the fat white dude.

It sounds nonsensical but this IS America, the enchanted land where anything can happen. Luckily, the millions of voters out there that actually follow this reasoning (and I believe there are many millions of them) will most likely be bummed when they realize next Thursday that they forgot to vote on Tuesday for the fat black dude. No, the skinny white dude. No, that’s not it either. Vote for the... oh, forget about it.

[Arthurio]

I think there’s a lot of looking over the shoulder going on here with pollsters.

Pew will come out with a final on Monday. They were on the money in 2004. Their last poll was tied, but turnout and other factors strongly favoring Romney.

[JPG]

Thanks for your reporting and analysis. It is appreciated.

[Jumper]

If the president did get a bounce in the North East/NJ/NY it would be in that area only.... Seems to me everyone will either vote their needs (if not affected by the weather...) or emotions. Emotional voters are accounted for in the 47%.

The 47% is going to be the most famous prediction ever in politics if Romney wins and Obama only pulls 47%.

[LS]

I think more what SoftwareEngineer is getting at---and I suspected this too when Gallup quit polling---is that the hurricane so disrupted phone lines, people's lives, and communication everywhere that your previous 1% response sample probably has dropped to .01%.

I have been told by a well-known Republican pollster that you all know that there is a certain laziness with the bigger polling organizations and their people are supposed to get x number of men, y number of indies, and so on. But after a while, they just get tired and sloppy and start saying, "Ok, close enough, I'll make him a Hispanic." With the advent of caller ID and cell phones (a large portion of which go to businessmen and suburban housewives, as well as the expected users of "yuts" and inner city types), pollsters are getting de facto a more D sample no matter what they try.