How about Governors? We will lose none and gain NC.
Could also gain MT, NH, WA. In that order of likelyhood IMO.
Weak chance in MO if we have a very good night.
Don’t know about state leg chambers that could shift, I hope we hold control in Maine.
I think we get the MT, NH and even the WA governorships; in fact, my upset special is the WV governorship. No chance on the MO governorship, I’m afraid (it was uphil lto begin with, and Akin sealed the deal for Nixon).
BTW, did you guys see what Rasmussen’s party ID findings were for October? R+5.8! Check them out by month for the past decade:
Rasmussen had never found a higher GOP advantage in party ID in any month over the past decade.
Rasmussen had it at D+7.1% in Oct. 2008 (when the exit polls ended up finding it D+7), and D+1.5 in Oct. 2004 (when the exit polls found D+0), so its record on this particular measure is outstanding.
Ras is being extra careful not to be accused of being a “Republican pollster” (not that Silver et al don’t do it anyways), so they weigh their national polls to D+3.5 (roughly halfway between the 2004 and 2008 electorate). The final Ras national poll was Romney 49, Obama 48; had Ras used the party identification it found throughout October, it would have been Romney 53, Obama 44.
I don’t want to sound giddy, but this is the best news regarding the election since at least the Gallup polls after the first debate (maybe ever).