Posted on 11/02/2012 1:28:03 PM PDT by RedMominBlueState
Dear Jonah,
I don’t know how much to trust the polls either. But take a look at this graphic in today’s Washington Post:
It says 13% of likely voters who voted for Obama in 2008 plan to vote for Romney this time. Obama got a little over 69 million votes in 2008. Thirteen percent of that is over nine million votes. If you just take those votes and add them to the 59 million votes McCain got, Romney wins easily. Now it is not that simple. The turnout is likely to be different this time. Chances not all 69 million Obama voters are going to turn out this time. So the number is something less than 9 million. But I still don’t see how that helps Obama very much since to make the 13% smaller means losing votes because people stay home. The bottom line is, if that graphic is to be believed, OBAMA IS LOSING A BIG CHUNK OF HIS VOTE FROM 2008. The only way to over come that is to get the McCain voters to either vote Obama/Johnson or not show up, which is highly unlikely. Or Obama could somehow find several million votes that were not there in 2008. Given the historic turnout in 2008, I don’t see how that is possible....
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
90-plus percent of my acquaintances who voted for Obama in ‘08 won’t this year.
for later
70% of my acquaintances who voted for Obama in 08 are distant acquaintances now and I don't have a clue how they will vote...
Funny that this poll shows a 13% swing from ‘08 to ‘12. With one more day left for early voting in Nevada there is almost exactly a 13% swing toward RR when it comes to D vs. R EV’s.
I saw my first O|B sign just north of Jackson Ms today.
I have not seen a O|B 2012 bumper sticker this year/.
In 08 the signs and stickers were every where in central Ms and in the Delta
Thank you BubbaBasher for posting the chart.
I did see a car with an Obama idol/statue on the dashboard obstructing the driver’s view. But the lack of Obama signs and stickers may mean that his voters are ashamed to show their loyalty but will still vote for him, or that they have changed their mind. Let’s see if latter is the case next Tuesday. Pray that it is.
It makes perfect sense to me that at least 13% of the imbeciles who voted for Obamugabe in 2008 feel snookered. Take 87% of the 54% of the Popular Vote he got in ‘08 and you get 47%.
That assumes the electorate does not change from ‘08. Most seem to think the lack of enthusiasm for him will depress his vote even further, making 47% a real stretch.
I wonder what the offset of all the dem vote stealing will be. (Military, rigged machines, mental institution registrations, dead voters, etc....)
13% of likely voters who voted for Obama in 2008 plan to vote for Romney this time.Just to show how bad off Zero is, almost 10 percent of the long-dead Demwit voters are switching.
Let’s run the numbers if turnout declines 15%, equally on both sides. This puts the overall turnout between 2000 and 2004.
Obama minus 15%: 59,038,362
McCain minus 15%: 50,944,591
Now take 13% of Obama’s votes and move them to Romney.
Obama: 51,363,375
Romney: 58,619,578
Romney only needs to convert a little under 7% of Obama’s voters to his side to win under that turnout scenario.
One type of person this doesn’t account for are the new voters that their “first time sex” ad was targetting. These would be people who were too young to vote in 2008. Then there may be people who sat out 2008 or weren’t registered but now want to vote for Obama. And also new immigrants.
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