Iowa: Romney 45.2 O 44.4 (U of Iowa poll)

Hawkeye Poll ^ | 10/31/12

[NoobRep]

University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll

[NoobRep]

University of Iowa poll. Kind of a small sample with quite a few undecideds.

[oblomov]

There will be a lot of unused home gyms in San Francisco this morning.

[Gay State Conservative]

Not bad...not bad.Even if the undecideds only break 50-50 it looks good for Romney.

[Rumierules]

Does Romney have a better chance of winning Iowa, Nevada, or New Hampshire? How would you rank those?

It looks like he is going to need at least one of these to get to 270.

[Buckeye Battle Cry]

I’ll take any tie heading into election day. The undecideds will deliver it to Romney.

[Homer_J_Simpson]

It looks like he is going to need at least one of these to get to 270.

He needs all of them to get to the 358 I predicted.

[Gay State Conservative]

He needs all of them to get to the 358 I predicted.

Romney has a better than even chance of winning but he won't get anything *near* 358.Whoever wins will win by a thread,EV-wise.

[paul544]

If you look at the details on this one I believe it was conducted by a class of students so not really a professional poll. But the professor that oversaw it comments on Romney momentum even if it isn’t obvious in the top line numbers.

[fortheDeclaration]

No, he will likely get over 300EV’s.

[TonyInOhio]

Does Romney have a better chance of winning Iowa, Nevada, or New Hampshire? How would you rank those?

I'm not the OP, but I'll chime in: I believe Romney wins New Hampshire, wins Iowa in a squeaker, and loses Nevada.

[BlueStateRightist]

“Does Romney have a better chance of winning Iowa, Nevada, or New Hampshire? How would you rank those?”

From my reading of copious polls and listening to trustworthy sources like Rasmussen I would rank the likelihood of a win for Romney (greatest to least) as New Hampshire, Iowa, then Nevada. Others may disagree. If I had a gun to my head I’d wager only NH and IA go to Romney. If he takes FL, OH, NC and VA then that’s all he needs.

[Clump]

I think Romney will win bigger than Bush over Kerry but smaller than either of the Reagan wins.
You will be surprised how much the polling models fail to account for this year which will put a number of places in play.
PA and MI could easily tip our way.

[GOPsterinMA]

I had a dream last night in which:

Romney won, without Ohio. I don't remember the final EV count though.

The Senate was 50/50. So with Ryan, it's 51/50.

The House majority grew by 18 seats. I remember the number 18 very specifically for the House.

And I watched “Wheeler Dealers” before I went to bed; nothing with politics (of course a certain site wasn't working anyways, but I won't get into that...).

[SampleMan]

A lot of undecideds. From previous voting, 50% of those undecideds would be Democrats. That isn’t good for Obama.

The undecided split nationally is overwhelmingly expected to break for Romney.

[Huskrrrr]

My micro Iowa poll shows a squeaker for Obama. Both my parents vote Romney. My sister and her husband are for Obama. My brother is undecided but leaning towards Obama. I’m in California, unfortunately so my Romney vote is wasted.

[MuttTheHoople]

It's gonna be a bloodbath for the Democrats on Election Day. ALL the polls are weighted +5 D or better, when it'll be a +5 for the GOP nationwide (like the 2010 Congressional elections). Not only that, but 80-90% of the Independents will break for Romney. Not only that, but I think Romney gets 30-35% of the Democrat vote.

How do I know that? By seeing the anecdotal evidence on the ground. Nationwide, where there were massive amounts of Obama posters, bumperstickers, and signs in 2008, now there's either Romney signs or NOTHING. By the energized campaign rallies for Romney and Ryan.

The Bradley-Wilder Effect wasn't around in 2008, because Obama had convinced everybody that he was a moderate-liberal who was willing to listen to everybody's ideas, including Conservative ones, if the result was a better America.

Instead, he spent four years as his True Regressive Marxist self, smack-talking and punking around like the little girl-dog he is, partying while Hairy Reid and Nancy Pelosi worked to turn our country into a 3rd world $hithole.

The Bradley Effect will be there in spades come next Tuesday. Not only is Romney ahead in even the most leftist polls, but when you unskew the polls he'll have a massive 10-25% blowout, with States going his way nobody expects.

[pburgh01]

Concern Trolls new meme the last 2 weeks when it was apparent Obama was going to lose..”Anyone who says it's going to be a blowout is wrong, it will be razor thin.” No other reasoning besides they say its going to be so, even after most of the poll data in the MSM has been dissected, dismembered and discarded as wishcasting and deceptive propaganda. Early voting has show R enthusiasm off the charts, 2010 level and Obama will not be close to 2008 level. Romney is killing it out there in the stump and early voting. We have anecdotal and empirical data to support this....But it's going to be close because Brian Williams and Nate Silver says its going to be close. Oh by the way , I wish I had the link, Nate Silver was over blah, blah percent sure the Cincinnati Reds would win the world series. Some you quaking at his predictions eat that, and this guy prided himself on his knowledge of baseball stats and prognostication.

[pburgh01]

Concern Trolls new meme the last 2 weeks when it was apparent Obama was going to lose..”Anyone who says it's going to be a blowout is wrong, it will be razor thin.” No other reasoning besides they say its going to be so, even after most of the poll data in the MSM has been dissected, dismembered and discarded as wishcasting and deceptive propaganda. Early voting has show R enthusiasm off the charts, 2010 level and Obama will not be close to 2008 level. Romney is killing it out there in the stump and early voting. We have anecdotal and empirical data to support this....But it's going to be close because Brian Williams and Nate Silver says its going to be close. Oh by the way , I wish I had the link, Nate Silver was over blah, blah percent sure the Cincinnati Reds would win the world series. Some you quaking at his predictions eat that, and this guy prided himself on his knowledge of baseball stats and prognostication.

[Jeff Head]

If Barry is only polling in at 44% this late in the game...them ROm,ney is going to win there 55% to 44% or something like that. Good...we need to steam roll this anti-American.

[NEMDF]

I would so LOVE for Romney to take IA for many reasons, not the least of which is my IA-residents sister and brother-in-law have been campaigning for 0bama, in both 2008 and now. What I cannot understand is that, their son is going into USAF in May, after ROTC, approved for pilot training and an 8-year commitment. Especially after seeing this Benghazi debacle, how could anyone support 0bama, while their son is headed to the military?