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To: Utmost Certainty
People here are in dangerous denial and in a bunker mentality, having latched themselves almost religiously to Gallup and Rasmussen.

All indications are that 0 is leading in the Electoral College today, and the national popular vote difference is within 2 points.

Early voting notwithstanding, Romney is behind and the race is tightening. If the election is held today, I think 0 will win...

36 posted on 10/31/2012 3:43:19 PM PDT by nwrep
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To: nwrep

Gallup had Romney up 5, Ras has him up 2
everyone else had it tied with no one hitting %50. Based on that you’re willing to throw in the towel? There are 6 days to get Obama out of office otherwise you’ll be coming here for the next four years complaining about some program that he enacts. Maybe you should spend your effort over the next 6 days trying to get him out of office instead of trying to depress everyone who is trying to be optimistic. Whatever else we all believe you better believe this, if Obama gets re-elected he has a clear mandate to enact his policies. Complaining a year from now will not change that.


44 posted on 10/31/2012 3:49:25 PM PDT by wiseprince
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To: nwrep

Riiight. Ok.

Stay home then. Go ahead. We are all just blowing smoke while you’re the smart one for running up your little white flag.

Every election we have to suffer these losers.


55 posted on 10/31/2012 3:59:03 PM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: nwrep
Polls always tighten right before the election and then separate again.

Even McCain got closer to Obama in the week before the election.

The election isn't held today and Obama is going to lose big next Tuesday.

I hope all you gainsayers come on the threads to eat your crow.

57 posted on 10/31/2012 3:59:28 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: nwrep

I’m not necessarily convinced Ø will win. It still feels like teetering 50/50 odds to me.

I do think this is the last political shot the Right is going to have though to avert national course. At least short of more drastic measures like revolt.


60 posted on 10/31/2012 4:01:49 PM PDT by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State)
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To: nwrep

First of all, Romney is leading both nationally and in swing state polls conducted by the two most legitimate outfits (Gallup and Rasmussen).

Second, polls *ALWAYS* oversample Democrats. They have done this every presidential election and Obama’s margin should have been 9-10% in 2008 going by most polls. The reason people look to Rasmussen is because he was the most accurate last time around.

Third, the turnout models being used are either identical to 2008 (which isn’t happening) or even greater than 2008 (see above). The elections that have been held since that time are incredibly different (oh and by the way, the 2010 polls were way off also).

Fourth, the breakdowns of existing data tell a very different story than the final result. Romney is winning independents by a huge margin. Romney is leading in early voting. Romney is leading crossover votes. He is doing much better than Obama was doing in 2008 and he won by 7 points. The *only* possible way Obama can win is if the Democrat turnout is even greater than it was in 2008. Based on the results already reported, even the turnout model from 2008 will not be sufficient for Obama to win.


64 posted on 10/31/2012 4:04:18 PM PDT by flintsilver7 (Honest reporting hasn't caught on in the United States.)
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