First of all, Romney is leading both nationally and in swing state polls conducted by the two most legitimate outfits (Gallup and Rasmussen).
Second, polls *ALWAYS* oversample Democrats. They have done this every presidential election and Obama’s margin should have been 9-10% in 2008 going by most polls. The reason people look to Rasmussen is because he was the most accurate last time around.
Third, the turnout models being used are either identical to 2008 (which isn’t happening) or even greater than 2008 (see above). The elections that have been held since that time are incredibly different (oh and by the way, the 2010 polls were way off also).
Fourth, the breakdowns of existing data tell a very different story than the final result. Romney is winning independents by a huge margin. Romney is leading in early voting. Romney is leading crossover votes. He is doing much better than Obama was doing in 2008 and he won by 7 points. The *only* possible way Obama can win is if the Democrat turnout is even greater than it was in 2008. Based on the results already reported, even the turnout model from 2008 will not be sufficient for Obama to win.
Maybe I’m drunk, but I’m seeing fantastic post after fantastic post on this thread! Keep it up, gang!
Rasmussen was not the most accurate in the last Presidential election.
Obama won by a 7.2 margin, 52.9 to 45.7 percent.
Rasmussen underestimated Obama with a 6-point margin, 52/46.
CNN & Ipsos were more accurate with a 7-point margin, 53/46.