First post here guys, I’ve been browsing through the articles and posts for a few days now and I have to admit I really dig yalls optimism and breakdown of polling info, it’s infectious and certainly has me in a better state of mind than previously. What I’d really like to know though, if somebody can answer, is the whole cell phone factor you hear libs and MSM drone on and on about. Every time a poll comes out that is even slightly favorable to Romney libs immediately pounce by saying that it is inaccurate because the poll in question didn’t include people who use cell phones exclusively, apparently group that is more likely to support Obama. There any validity to this? If this has already been discussed and addressed ad nauseam I apologize in advance.
WELCOME to Free Republic! I've been here awhile. :-) it's a GREAT place to learn things.
To answer your question: Yes, there is SOME validity to it. Any poll that doesn't sample cell phones, and makes no correction for it, will likely undercount Dems by a couple of %.
That's what I heard Scott Rasmussen say in a radio interview a few days ago. The reason is two-fold:
1)People who ONLY use a cell phone, tend to skew younger, and younger people skew towards Obama, and
2) Of the people who do actually have land lines, people in urban areas tend to NOT ANSWER the phone as often as people in rural areas. So, the samples skew rural, which skews toward Rep's.
Rasmussen said his team has studied this affect, and they correct for it in their results. He must be doing SOMETHING right... cause, he was the most accurate pollster in the 2008 and 2010.
The impact is real, but... it's not as important as a poll that over-samples Democrats by 4-10%.
WELCOME to Free Republic! I've been here awhile. :-) it's a GREAT place to learn things.
To answer your question: Yes, there is SOME validity to it. Any poll that doesn't sample cell phones, and makes no correction for it, will likely undercount Dems by a couple of %.
That's what I heard Scott Rasmussen say in a radio interview a few days ago. The reason is two-fold:
1)People who ONLY use a cell phone, tend to skew younger, and younger people skew towards Obama, and
2) Of the people who do actually have land lines, people in urban areas tend to NOT ANSWER the phone as often as people in rural areas. So, the samples skew rural, which skews toward Rep's.
Rasmussen said his team has studied this affect, and they correct for it in their results. He must be doing SOMETHING right... cause, he was the most accurate pollster in the 2008 and 2010.
The impact is real, but... it's not as important as a poll that over-samples Democrats by 4-10%.
WELCOME to Free Republic! I've been here awhile. :-) it's a GREAT place to learn things.
To answer your question: Yes, there is SOME validity to it. Any poll that doesn't sample cell phones, and makes no correction for it, will likely undercount Dems by a couple of %.
That's what I heard Scott Rasmussen say in a radio interview a few days ago. The reason is two-fold:
1)People who ONLY use a cell phone, tend to skew younger, and younger people skew towards Obama, and
2) Of the people who do actually have land lines, people in urban areas tend to NOT ANSWER the phone as often as people in rural areas. So, the samples skew rural, which skews toward Rep's.
Rasmussen said his team has studied this affect, and they correct for it in their results. He must be doing SOMETHING right... cause, he was the most accurate pollster in the 2008 and 2010.
The impact is real, but... it's not as important as a poll that over-samples Democrats by 4-10%.