Posted on 10/28/2012 11:21:51 PM PDT by profit_guy
On Fox News Sunday, Brit Hume said the poll would show Romney +5. He was very wrong.
(Excerpt) Read more at images.politico.com ...
I don’t like seeing O up a point in battle ground states. Should we worry?
Worry after you examine the internals of the poll, sample size, reputation of pollster, and finally who paid for the poll. Follow the money!
3% independent??? I don’t think so... this poll is really whack in the way questions are worded. The internals show a great majority saying wrong track bad economy....by like 67 to 30. That doesn’t not make sense to then say oh but I am voting for the same track...
It is not a battleground/state poll, it is a national poll called “Battleground”, and yes I am very concerned about it because Brit Hume spoke confidently on Sunday morning about this upcoming poll and that it would show Romney with a 5 pt lead - instead it shows Obama leading 49-48. Last week this same poll showed Romney leading 49-47. They are a very reputable polling firm which adds to my concern.
It does NOT say “3% Independent”, it says 3% Undecided. If you go to Pg 8 you will see where it says 15% Independent - but I do not see the breakdown.
you should ping Steelfish and you can have someone else to share your concerns about a poll making a within the MOE statistical fart.
What are the internals of this poll? I haven’t seen any signs of movement for Obama. Not on the weekend. We’ll know more when Gallup comes out later today.
I am not at all like Steelfish! However I am concerned (as others here will be) that Brit Hume announced it on FNS today that it would show Romney +5, and it missed by 6 points (as it now shows Obama +1). I sure as hell hope I am worrying about nothing, but these guys have a solid track record over the last 5 Presidential elections:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/11-4-ballot%2Bballot-prediction-rcp.pdf
You tell me if they are any good?:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/11-4-ballot%2Bballot-prediction-rcp.pdf
I did not watch the show. Are you sure he said that *this* poll would show a 5 point lead?
I did find this interview with Ed Goeas, one of the Battleground pollsters, who mentioned Romney winning by 5 points, but he did not specifically tie it to one of his polls.
http://www.swoknews.com/news-top/local/item/2286-pollster-from-here-sees-romney-surge
Those final projections from Battleground are not poll numbers. They’re predictions.
“Those final projections from Battleground are not poll numbers. They’re predictions.”
...read closer, and do some homework and you will see their final projected numbers are VERY close to the actual numbers (except for 2008, however they still picked the winner):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1992
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1996
...these guys are highly respected Republican pollsters
No, those they qualify as ‘leaners’ said they were independent, then were additionally asked what direction they lean.
Ed Goeas is the Republican pollster, Celinda Lake is the Democrat pollster.
And again, the projection is their prediction, not the final poll number. They basically allocate the remaining undecideds when doing the projection.
A majority say that the country is on the wrong track...yet almost half are voting for Obama again. We have soooooooooo many morons in this country. It’s just pathetic. At least people had the sense to throw Carter out after one term back then. Now... we just have space cadets apparent.
Look at question 6. That’s where Obama’s goose is cooked.
The total was 33% independent—upon further inquiry more than half, or 18%, described themselves as leaners one way or the other.
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