Posted on 10/28/2012 7:01:43 PM PDT by SmithL
AMES, Iowa (AP) — President Barack Obama is poised to eke out a victory in the race for the 270 electoral votes needed to win re-election, having beaten back Republican Mitt Romney's attempts to convert momentum from the debates into support in all-important Ohio, according to an Associated Press analysis a week before Election Day.
While the Democratic incumbent has the upper hand in the electoral vote hunt, Romney has pulled even, or is slightly ahead, in polling in a few pivotal states, including Florida and Virginia. The Republican challenger also appears to have the advantage in North Carolina, the most conservative of the hotly contested nine states that will determine the winner.
While in a tight race with Obama for the popular vote, Romney continues to have fewer state-by-state paths than Obama to reach 270. Without Ohio's 18 electoral votes, Romney would need last-minute victories in nearly all the remaining up-for-grabs states and manage to pick off key states now leaning Obama's way, such as Iowa or Wisconsin.
(Excerpt) Read more at sfgate.com ...
When this is done, Zero will be fortunate to get just the states that AP claims are solid Zero. EVERYTHING else goes to Mittens.
If Obama misses OH, he needs to win every swing state besides NC, VA and FL. So, yeah, Obama needs OH more than Romney needs it. The AP seems to have cooked their “swing state” list for this article to make it seem like Romney needed it more.
Without OH, Obama needs these:
PA
MI
WI
CO
NV
IA
NH
It’s pretty bad on the other side of the bay — Palo Alto, Menlo Park, Mtn View, Los Altos. Lots of Obama yard signs, but hardly any bumper stickers. On our block, there are 6 Obama signs and 2 Romney signs. One family is split and may put up both.
If Obungo was 50% and Romney was 46% (i.e., the reverse of Gallup) the MSM would be declaring this election over for their messiah.
Thanks for the report from the Peninsula/Upper Silicon Valley.
I wonder why there’s a discrepancy between the yard signs and the bumper stickers?
Every time I see one of these I search for the word “independent”, and I never see it, whether from Silver or anyone else. How does Obama win if he’s losing 7+% of independents? Even the polls showing Obama ahead show him losing among independents. No incumbent has won without getting at least close to 50% among independents. Why should this time be different? Why aren’t independents at least considered?
How does Obama win Ohio if he loses Independents by 7%? Is Dem turnout really going to be so much better than GOP turnout that it can overcome that?
If Gallup is correct, and Romney is winning by 4%, with a couple of undecideds still to decide, presumably for Romney, how does Obama win?
I suppose it’s possible Obama will win, but it doesn’t seem likely; he’s certainly not a “favorite.” His winning would be a perfect storm.
“I wonder why there’s a discrepancy between the yard signs and the bumper stickers?”
People don’t want their cars keyed, or to be subject to road rage.
It’s real out there.
In nine days, these people are going to eat crow, big time.
Asspress liars are nothing but pigs and jackals.
They have NC as just a “leans Romney” and Florida as still a “tossup”. More whisteling past the graveyard for the Friends of our first Red president.
I’m not sure it’s significant...I see hundreds of cars per day and don’t drive through that many neighborhoods. But there is definitely an imbalance. I’m seeing at most one or two Obama bumper stickers per day.
Yard signs are easier to plant (or steal).
Bumper stickers are easy to apply but hard to remove.
I’ve seen a couple of cars with BO signs taped to an inside window.
Note the false assumption, that Romney isn't going to get Ohio-he will.
Amen.
And let the 'weeping and gnashing of the teeth' of the Left begin!
Yes indeed, and watch how they spin it.
“But they did. Now, if O wins, I will be so demoralized.”
I feel your angst!
It was only the traitor John Roberts who passed O-care. He will find himself listed right after Taney in the history books.
There are only 2 states that split votes, Maine and Nebraska.
A bigger issue is states, NJ is one and there are others, that have laws on the books that their electoral votes will go to the winner of the popular vote.
However, there is some trigger mechanism in them so none are in effect at this time. I’m sorry I forget what the trigger is, but I’m pretty sure that as soon as it is pulled these laws will be challenged on constitutional grounds.
Now, I’d have to go back and read the relevent parts of the constitution to see if I thought they’d pass muster, but we must remember that term limits (passed as part of the “contract with america” by the Gingrich congress and signed by Clinton) was thrown out on the grounds that it imposed an unconstitutional requirement on congressmen/senators.
This is why I wish people would stop saying “we need term limits!” because we got them and they were ruled unconstitutional. If anyone really wants them for the federal offices we’re going to have to amend the constitution.
The law does not become effective until it has been passed by states totalling 270 EV.
Which will never happen.
The term limits measure was the one element in the Contract with America that was not passed by the GOP Congress (the contract had promised to bring the issue to a vote, not pass it).
Subsequently, several states passed term limits measures. And it was these that were challenged in court and declared unconstitutional by SCOTUS.
Thanks for explaining that, somehow I thought it was more convoluted than that.
It was all just a response to the 2000 Florida fiasco. Let Romney win big in the popular vote and that movement will die a quick death.
I’ll tell you one state that is going for O - Maryland. I was down there this week. That state is truly in the bag for Obama. Bumperstickers, yard signs, the whole enchilada! Hubby and I did get kind of lost at one point and found ourselves in some strange Republican enclave. I said “this must be the Freeper neighborhood!”
But we commute 80 miles a day round trip in NJ and we’ve seen almost no Obama bumperstickers. You wouldn’t really think there is a presidential race going on at all here, which is very, very strange.
My take is that New Jersyans have made up their minds a long time ago. As someone on this tread said about Cali, there are a lot of grim people here.
I can’t think that means Romney will prevail, but I’d love it if he did!
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