See my post above. The Indie support for Obama today is 41% (not 25%), hence 41% * .25 = 10.25. The result does not change.
It was my transfer/typing from Excel to FR. I had 25% on mind (as that’s the multiplier). Sorry for the confusion.
Here is is again, edited.
10/27
Romney
Republicans 88% * .36 = 31.38
Democrats 11% * .39 = 4.29
Indies 58% * .25 = 14.50
Total = 50.47 (rounded down to 50%, but so close to 51%)
Obama
Democrats 86% * .39 = 33.54
Republicans 10% * .36 = 3.6
Indies 35% * .25 = 8.75
Total = 45.89 (rounded up to 46%)
10/28
Romney
Repubs 90% * .36 = 32.4
Dems 12% * .39 = 4.68
Indies 52% * .25 =13
Total = 50.08
Obama
Dems 86% * .39 = 33.54
Repubs 8% * .36 = 2.88
Indies 41% * .25 = 10.25
Total = 46.67
NHWingUT,
Just moving the above sample from D+3 to D+1 changes the totals for today (based on your calculations) to:
R: 50.88
O: 45.77
51-46
This assumes a R/D/I sample of 36/37/27
Thanks for the explanation - great work!
(Hey, at least you know we’re reading your posts!)
C’mon. Does anybody really believe that Romney is going to get only 88-90% of the GOP vote? Historically it’s has been 94-95% of GOP base. However, Obama is beginning to have a base problem with 11-12% of Dem vote going to Romney. This should up the Romney lead another 2.0-2.5 pts.