[SoftwareEngineer]

NHWingUT,

Just moving the above sample from D+3 to D+1 changes the totals for today (based on your calculations) to:

R: 50.88
O: 45.77

51-46

This assumes a R/D/I sample of 36/37/27

[BlueStateRightist]

All stays the same, the final score likely to be 52-47 (1% other). Benghazi story gets any real legs and it will go to 54-45. 45% is the Marxist’s floor. Unemployment report on Friday will have an unpredictable effect.

[nhwingut]

I plugged in today's Rasmussen's crosstabs (Romney 90R/12D/52I; Obama 86D/8R/41I) with Gallup's recently released party id/electorate survey which was D35/R36/I29.

Gallup Party id survey here

Result: Romney 52 Obama 45

Romney
Repubs 90% * .36 = 32.4
Dems 12% * .35 = 4.2
Indies 52% * .29 = 15.08
Total = 51.68 (52%)


Obama
Dems 86% * .35 = 30.1
Repubs 8% * .36 = 2.8
Indies 41% * .29 = 11.89
Total = 44.79 (45%)