Thanks, that kinda answers my question - and poses new ones.
On one hand, who really thinks Romney lost 6% of Independents overnight?
On the other, I’d like to believe that Obama’s support amongst Independents dropped 10% overnight, but where did it go? Back to “Undecided” I guess, since Romney’s numbers didn’t go up proportionally.
I think I’ll leave poll-analysis to your guys!
See my post above. The Indie support for Obama today is 41% (not 25%), hence 41% * .25 = 10.25. The result does not change.
It was my transfer/typing from Excel to FR. I had 25% on mind (as that’s the multiplier). Sorry for the confusion.
Here is is again, edited.
10/27
Romney
Republicans 88% * .36 = 31.38
Democrats 11% * .39 = 4.29
Indies 58% * .25 = 14.50
Total = 50.47 (rounded down to 50%, but so close to 51%)
Obama
Democrats 86% * .39 = 33.54
Republicans 10% * .36 = 3.6
Indies 35% * .25 = 8.75
Total = 45.89 (rounded up to 46%)
10/28
Romney
Repubs 90% * .36 = 32.4
Dems 12% * .39 = 4.68
Indies 52% * .25 =13
Total = 50.08
Obama
Dems 86% * .39 = 33.54
Repubs 8% * .36 = 2.88
Indies 41% * .25 = 10.25
Total = 46.67