Posted on 10/27/2012 6:37:28 PM PDT by Evil Slayer
Red alert, local Democrats: One week into early voting, Republicans are beating you in turnout.
This analysis comes courtesy of fourth-day data from early voting sites across Bexar County, comparing turnout in 2008 to this year's numbers.
Democrats, of course, swept elections in 2008, when Barack Obama won the presidency and, incidentally, beat John McCain in Bexar County by more than five percentage points.
In predicting the political loyalties of voters at early voting sites, local geography plays a role, according to consultants.
“Typically, Bexar County's North Side are the heaviest Republican-voting precincts,” says Christian Anderson, who runs campaigns for both Democrats and Republicans. “And the further north you go, the more Republican the vote becomes.”
Kelton Morgan, a GOP consultant, agree
“There are a couple (sites) inside (Loop 410), but those outside the Loop, those suburban areas, are better for (Republicans),” he said.
Consider, then, the amount of voters who had cast ballots through Thursday at Brookhollow Library, a site in the North Side enclave of Hill Country Village.
In 2008, the number was 5,059.
This year, it's 7,900. About 3,000 more voters have turned out.
That trend, with a few exceptions, is echoing across the far North Side: At Fair Oaks Ranch City Hall, about 700 more people have voted; at Julia Yates Semmes Library on the Northeast Side, about 1,000 more; at John Igo Library on the Northwest Side, about 1,400 more.
Meanwhile, inside Loop 410, the inverse is mostly true.
In 2008, for instance, the Claude Black Center on the East Side had fielded 3,267 voters in the first four days. This year, it's seen 2,647 — a decrease of about 600.
Other inner-city sites are seeing drop-offs. At Memorial Library on the West Side, about 100 fewer voters had turned out; at Las Palmas Library
(Excerpt) Read more at mysanantonio.com ...
Hope this pattern holds true for the majority of the country. I think pollsters are making a lot of assumptions about turnout that are going to bite them in the backside. I don’t just want Romney to win, I want Obama and the media to be humiliated.
Poll Ping.
They are very confident and are mocking anyone who dares question the NY Times Nate Silver
+ 1
(font size won't go up to 150,000 ;-)
Democrat areas usually turn in results late to account for “adjustments” , or accidentally leave voted in their car trunk overnight.
Agreed. It won’t be Reaganesque, but it needs to be a clear mandate, and not the kind Barney Frank goes on!
But this is TX, right? Romney won’t have a problem winning TX.
It is long lines voting in eastern Arkansas...and would judge from personal viewpoint about 50/50 split Repub/dem voters.
Arkansas should go for Romney, but it is surprising the heavy voter turn-out looks about equal. Republican voters nationwide better take notice and be more determined.
I have been reading a lot about Nate likely and why he may be wrong or right. Right now he has Obama at about a 75% chance of winning. Why do you think he is wrong?
Call in the UN.
Excellent, our diabolical voter suppression plan is working smoothly.
Bexar county is considered a nationwide swing county. Home of san antonio and julian castro. Which ever way bexar goes, so goes the nation.
Btw, this is another swing county I’ve been looking at. Obama won 52.4 to 46.8 in 2008. Alongwith washoe, nv and wood, oh and others.
I have volunteered for GOTV efforts in my local area.
The Romney Campaign has an excellent and efficiently organized means for obtaining real time vote info across the country.
I am VERY impressed, and that doesn’t happen often. These people are smart and capable, and react quickly on their feet.
They will legally squeeze in every available pubbie vote everywhere they need to in order to win, and win with a mandate, a week from Tuesday.
I’m really looking “forward” to being a small part of it!
I was one of those North-side early voters they are talking about. Turn-out is very heavy this year. Sure, this is Texas and the Republicans were going to win anyhow. It just shows you the level of unhappiness people have with the current regime.
Not saying he is wrong, or right, just saying the numbers don’t make sense. GOP candidates in Ohio outperform national numbers every yr since 1960, but somehow Obama will equal his win from 08 while Romney wins popular vote by 3-4 points?
He may not be wrong, especially since the only thing that matters is his final prediction. And that's the problem with much of the "polling season" up to this point. It's like the exhibition season in football: none of it counts. So pollsters and pundits are free to try to manipulate the system up until the last few days when they'll be judged by how close they come to the actual vote.
Moreover, Silver works for the NYT. He is a darling of liberals. If he had been predicting from the start that things look good for Romney, would he still be the darling of liberals? Would he still feel secure about his NYT gig?
Maybe his tune won't change and he'll gone down with the ship, but my guess is that in the next few days more polling outfits will start adjusting their sampling demographics (now that the exhibition season is coming to an end) to better reflect where the country is this year as opposed to where it was 4 years ago. That in turn might force Silver to re-evaluate things.
A lot of unhappy people in the past year or two...hopefully, this means change!
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