I have been reading a lot about Nate likely and why he may be wrong or right. Right now he has Obama at about a 75% chance of winning. Why do you think he is wrong?
Not saying he is wrong, or right, just saying the numbers don’t make sense. GOP candidates in Ohio outperform national numbers every yr since 1960, but somehow Obama will equal his win from 08 while Romney wins popular vote by 3-4 points?
He may not be wrong, especially since the only thing that matters is his final prediction. And that's the problem with much of the "polling season" up to this point. It's like the exhibition season in football: none of it counts. So pollsters and pundits are free to try to manipulate the system up until the last few days when they'll be judged by how close they come to the actual vote.
Moreover, Silver works for the NYT. He is a darling of liberals. If he had been predicting from the start that things look good for Romney, would he still be the darling of liberals? Would he still feel secure about his NYT gig?
Maybe his tune won't change and he'll gone down with the ship, but my guess is that in the next few days more polling outfits will start adjusting their sampling demographics (now that the exhibition season is coming to an end) to better reflect where the country is this year as opposed to where it was 4 years ago. That in turn might force Silver to re-evaluate things.