Posted on 10/27/2012 7:08:31 AM PDT by tatown
Show me.
There is absolutely nothing that could happen in the next two weeks to put MA into play.
But this is still pretty good news!
The MSM will NEVER show Romney ahead in OH.
They have a meme to protect and also they need to stay relevant. Bush was in this exact position in 2004 and he went on to win OH.
I expect this is going to happen again this year but it won’t be as close as in 2004 when it took a few days for the networks to make the OH call for Bush only after Kerry had already conceded.
I like your assessment of Ohio. I’m dependent on the MSM as I’m “on the ground” in Mitt’s home state, the People’s Republic of Massachusetts.
Yeah, of all people I would think Barone can see this. I’ve been sending him our stuff. Clearly Adrian Gray and @NumbersMuncher on Twitter get it.
| Natl | Bush | 2000 | 47.9% | 50,456,002 | 48.4% | 50,999,897 |
| Ohio | Bush | 2000 | 50% | 2,351,209 | 46.5% | 2,186,190 |
| Natl | Bush | 2004 | 50.7% | 62,040,610 | 48.3% | 59,028,444 |
| Ohio | Bush | 2004 | 50.8% | 2,858,727 | 48.7% | 2,739,952 |
| Natl | Bobo | 2008 | 52.9% | 69,456,897 | 45.7% | 59,934,814 |
| Ohio | Bobo | 2008 | 51.5% | 2,940,044 | 46.9% | 2,677,820 |
This is EXACTLY what a second tier pollster told me a week ago. They cannot allow the polls to come anywhere close to showing OH "called," because then ALL of Obama's support crumbles in the remaining states. And who, then, would need a pollster?
BTW, I'm on the ground in Dayton. Same thing. No enthusiasm for Zero. Heavy enthusiasm for Romney and even heavier enthusiasm for getting rid of Zero.
I think if R gets to your second tier, you would have to throw CT in there.
Obama-factor here in 2008 is very small 2.8%
My final calculation for CT is 44.9%R, too small.
CT is too democrat-leaning.
If Romney is at 51-45 now it means he will be closer to 55-45 on election day in the swing states.
So Ohio is important, better to have it then not. But what happens if Romney on election night WINS Ohio AND Colorado AND NH and enough others to give him say 290 votes. Then someone says HEY WAIT!! And decide to give Ohio to Obama? Take 18 from Romney’s total (BTW this is TWO less EC votes than before) and give them to Obama and the result is Romney wins anyway with 272 EC votes.
Just because “they” say a Rep has never won the WH without Ohio does not mean a Rep cannot win the WH without Ohio. If Nixon or Reagan had not won Ohio would they have lost the election? Not even close.
I don't see any celebrations.
About Ohio, it's become Pennsylvania west. It isn't the bellwether it once was. Look to NH, IA, WI and CO. They are moving our way.
Just some anecdotal information from VA as a poll observer at a VA in-person absentee satellite polling station in Fairfax County. Reps are matching the Dems in early voting, which is very unusual. The GOP level of enthusiasm and righteous anger is the most I have seen in the 33 years living here. All we have to do is break close to even in NoVA and we can win this thing by 2% to 3%.
I noticed that many Reps are bringing their 18 year old high school children to vote. The number of veterans is also considerable and the old and hobbled stream in to vote. As one old vet of Korea and Vietnam said, "I don't care if I die before election day, I voted to get this bastard out of the WH." And so did his wife. Inspiring stuff. People are realizing what is at stake in this election.
Okay, I live in a suburb of Seattle, WA; so, there is no chance of WA going red; but, I live next door to an African-American (older) couple and he always, ALWAYS has Democratic candidate signs hanging off his front fence during election season. We have lived next door to this couple for over 30 years --- always the same.
Last election, Obama/Biden signs on his fence --- this year, none, zero, nada. There is one sign for a local man running for a State Rep seat; but, no Obama/Biden sign. I am gob-smacked about that. If the "O" has lost my neighbor, he is in deep trouble.
I had an Uncle named Sam Katz. He was a Ukranian Jewish immigrant who came to America in the 1920’s when he was 17 years old. He made a success of himself without even having a high school diploma. It is because of the passing of his generation that an America hating, 1980’s college campus “Alt Rock” (Husker Du/Joy Division/The Smiths) Leftist like Obama was able to hoodwink latter day dumbed down America into electing him to the White House.
And no, I don’t share your pessimism about Ohio. I live in New York, and I believe that Romney has a 50/50 shot at carrying the Empire State en route to a landslide win. Because as dumbed down as America has become, we still don’t want Socialism. The problem is, the media/academia/Hollywood Liberal triumvirate has done everything in their power over the last 40 years to prevent the masses from being able to identify who the Socialists are and the amount of power they’ve amassed in various American institutions.
But Obama has shed bright sunlight on this infection, and he will be thrown to the curb with great force on election night!
I pray you are right.
Oldplayer
I am such a pessimist, until I own an outcome. (Must be genetic.). But even I believe the Gazigaye scandal HAS to be eeking out there, and if it does soon enough, democrats may sober up. They are a very large part of our military and Armed Forces. That’s a brotherhood with influence.
As for thinking people, everyone knows if this were a Republican administration there would be hellfire burning across the nation. So, thank you, for saying that you too believe it’s starting to break through. Finally. Maybe. Sorta. I pray for a wake up BEFORE this election.
Some additional anecdotal evidence is this:
I live in a Dane County WI suburb of Madison. When we were going through the whole recall thing there were hundreds of Recall Walker signs everywhere, union officials everywhere drumming up support to oust Walker.
Now it is very quiet. Hardly an Obama sign to speak of and no union people on street corners trying to raise support for 0.
The GOTV effort for fending off the recall is still in place and is as effective as it was in June, Wisconsin will be close, but it will go for Romney 51% to 48%.
IMHO!
White working class has no allegiance to the Usurper really, maybe some of the flunkies in the UAW but then there are the utility, coal and gas workers getting screwed in return.
I think the polls are missing something, I don't think Ohioans are that different from their neighbors.
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