Does Silver actually believe what he is publishing? If so, I’ve never seen an election where each side is so sure of winning...
Silver is Baghdad Nate at this point. He put himself so far out on the ledge in September that he cannot afford to comeback now. Although, he did have a chance to pullback after the first debate when there was a clear momentum shift, but he refused, so now he’s stuck.
I did my thesis on Garbage In Garbage Out modeling, and how it is accepted by the general public, i.e. since it is processed/produced by a “smart” computer, people believe the BS.
You can basically create any result you want if you input the requisite numbers - and still look like you know what you are talking about. His sabermetrics modeling is laughable relative to politics.