Rasmussen Daily: SAT 10/27: R:50 O:46 Obama -10%

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 10/27/2012 | Rasmussen Reports

[SoftwareEngineer]

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 46%. Two percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided. This is the fifth consecutive day that Romney has been at the 50% level of support. He has enjoyed a three- or four-point edge on each of those days. See daily tracking history.

[COBOL2Java]

...another two percent (2%) are undecided

Will they still be undecided standing in the voting booth? Or will they (hopefully) be undecided all day at home, staring at the car keys? "Gosh, should I pick the keys up, or should I have a bowl of Cheerios? Or maybe I should sit in this chair...I'm so undecided!"

[nhwingut]

"However, he has now fallen 9 behind with women"

But Romney is now up with men by 19, 57/38, holding a +10 on gender gap. Obama won gender gap in 2008 by 6 - and won election by 7. So this is a 16 point swing.

[StandAndDeliver1]

Obama

Democrats 86% * .39 = 33.54

Republicans 10% * .36 = 3.6

Indies 35% * .25 = 8.75

Total = 45.89 (rounded up to 46%)

I love the idea that 1 out of 10 Republicans would vote for Obama.

[cdga5for4]

They aren’t at all going in a meltdown. Nate Silver increased Obama’s chances of winning to more than 75 percent. They think the race is completely over.

[StandAndDeliver1]

They had three floors set aside to register people.

But they did a great job waxing that floor.

[InterceptPoint]

A sneak peek into the Swing State numbers today from Rasmussen - The Governor is up by 6! - R:51 O:45

Has anyone figured out how to reconcile this huge Swing State lead for Romney (that includes IA, MI, NV, OH, PA and WI, states that are supposedly leaning O or are tied) with the available polls for all 11 Raz Swing States?

Just for reference, the Raz Swing States are: CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA and WI.

'Tis a mystery still. It is simply not believable that R could be piling up the huge leads in CO, FL, NH, NC and VA that would be necessary to generate a 6% advantage over O. Something is amiss.

[nhwingut]

That’s what I said. They are holding out hope for a EV win amidst a national vote loss.

Silver increased it to 74.89897 (decimal points added to sound scientific) or something ridiculous last night. Based on quote “tipping-point” polls from Ohio. LOL!

More than anyone, I will relish rubbing it in Silver’s face for weeks.

[lacrew]

No meltdown at all over at DU. Just numerous ‘good poll’ posts...they’ll take any poll, as long as it shows O in the lead. A mention of Rasmussen will likely get you banned, since its witchcraft (the reality of his past accuracy escapes them).

[wolfman23601]

I wonder what would happen if NC was taken off that list?

[nhwingut]

I wonder what would happen if NC was taken off that list?

I think Obama would close to a tie. But then you could say same thing about PA where Obama holds a 5-6 point lead. I think they wash each other out (both are lean states, not toss ups).

[Iowegian]

I wonder if Ras is using a different party breakdown for individual states. Does anybody know?

[nhwingut]

I wonder if Ras is using a different party breakdown for individual states. Does anybody know?

Each state has it's own party id sample. Virginia is a R+1, PA is a D+6, etc.

[CTGOPPER]

I couldn’t help myself and took a sneak peak at DU. They are ecstatic about the polls they are following. No mention of Rasmussen or Gallup.

[tatown]

Does Silver actually believe what he is publishing? If so, I’ve never seen an election where each side is so sure of winning...

[RedMDer]

[SoFloFreeper]

I interpret this to mean the Demon rats FAILED to get anywhere near the number of registered voters they were hoping for?

[StandAndDeliver1]

Nate Silver increased Obama’s chances of winning to more than 75 percent.

I skimmed Silver's explanation in yesterday's realclearpolitics.com; it was 100% convoluted statistical analysis.

Anybody with the truth on their side doesn't have to resort to that.

[Iowegian]

Thanks, that’s what I thought. And it may be why there is a difference.

[TomT in NJ]

If Silver wants to save his reputation and future income prospects, he will need to fix his model or trash it completely by the end of next week. He has to be a little curious as to how Romney can be leading by 4 to 5 points nationally in Gallup and Rasmussen but is somehow losing the electoral vote according to his model.

His last post yesterday concluded with “...we may be approaching the point where the state polls will have to be systematically biased toward Mr. Obama in order for Mr. Romney to have strong chances of prevailing on Election Day”.

So maybe he is starting to wake up but may be worried at the same time that his worshippers have too much invested in him.

[hcmama]

The left reminds me of us in 2008, hanging onto crap polls like Zogby, ignoring Rasmussen and Gallup, and holding out hope for a national vote loss and EV win. That is a sign of a sure loser.

To paraphrase Tolstoy: All happy campaigns resemble one another, each unhappy campaign is unhappy in its own way.

DU has chosen the predictably Stalinist approach. Anyone who dares point out that the rails are coming off the Obama train is deemed guilty of thought crime. Then a "jury" convenes and comes out with a decision to remove the non-sufficiently optimistic post. It is creepy.