Posted on 10/26/2012 9:32:26 PM PDT by smoothsailing
October 26, 2012
David Hartline
The all important Ohio presidential race is increasingly tilting in Governor Mitt Romney’s favor. Now we are all familiar with the “ground game” in the state, but few have paid enough attention to the demographics that have been aiding Governor Romney. Ohio has actually been trending in the GOP’s direction for years: Many residents of Democratic-vote-rich areas of northern Ohio have left the state due to decreasing jobs, while the GOP-leaning suburbs of Columbus and Cincinnati have been some of the fastest-growing areas in the Midwest.
Let’s put the microscope to these data: In 2008, Barack Obama garnered less votes in Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County than did John Kerry in 2004. This is surprising, since Cuyahoga is the largest county in Ohio and has the largest African American population. But all of the Democratic counties in northern Ohio, like Cuyahoga, have been decreasing in population, skewing the state as a whole toward the GOP.
The fast-growing suburban counties surrounding Columbus went for Senator John McCain 60–40 in 2008. However, those same counties went for President Bush 67–33 in 2004. The suburban counties around Cincinnati went for Senator McCain 63–37, but they gave President Bush nearly 70 percent of the vote in 2004. However, Romney-campaign officials suggest that the suburban numbers in Columbus and Cincinnati are back where they were in 2004.
If this indeed is the case, it seems quite difficult for President Obama to win the state, since counties that favor him such as Cuyahoga (part of Cleveland), Lucas (Toledo), and Mahoning (Youngstown) have all seen population drops since 2008, while the suburban counties continue to grow rapidly. For example, census estimates suggest that Cuyahoga County may have lost nearly 5 percent of its population since 2008, with many of the residents moving to southern and western states. On the flip side, the suburban GOP-stronghold counties that surround Columbus and Cincinnati have gained residents, some by nearly the same amount that Cuyahoga County lost. The demographic data are not only relevant to Ohio, but also to other Midwestern states, especially Michigan. From 2000–2010 Detroit lost over 250,000 residents and is now smaller than Columbus, which is why some believe even the Big Labor stronghold of Michigan may be within the reach of the Detroit-born Governor Romney.
This doesn’t take into account eastern Ohio, a normally reliable Democrat area, but in the east, coal is is king. The Democrats may not win a single county in Ohio’s coal country because of the Obama administration’s attempts to strangle the coal industry. Anecdotal evidence for the Romney-Ryan ticket can been seen in the number of Romney-Ryan signs in rural Ohio, and most notably in the number of homemade signs. In addition, the size of rallies for the Romney-Ryan ticket has been nothing short of amazing. On Thursday night, More than 12,000 people showed up for a Romney-Ryan event in the GM-factory town of Defiance, Ohio (population 16,465), located in rural northwest Ohio.
Polling has been questionable at best in the Buckeye State; the CBS/New York Times poll even gave President Obama a D+9 voter advantage in a state that had a R+1 advantage in the 2010 miderm election. Few pollsters have even thought to factor in the religious-liberty Issue in a state that has a large number of socially conservative, working-class Catholic voters in northern Ohio, in addition to a large swath of Catholic farmers in the western portion of the state. These voters often put social issues ahead of economic issues, and their faith is often more important to them than it is for voters on either coast. Such social issues, along with the demographic trends, point to a Romney-Ryan victory in Ohio come November 6.
— David Hartline lives in the Columbus, Ohio, area, has worked on Capitol Hill, and is the author of The Catholic Tide Continues to Turn (Aquinas and More 2012).
I hope so.
Speaking to folks back there, they are pissed at Obama, but Ohio is a weird state full of folks that think good union jobs will return any day if they vote dem
Sherrod Brown needs the old heave ho.
Poll ping.
Anyone but me notice that NBC has gone THE FULL OBAMA, all the time, now? Within the last week, they have REALLY gone over the edge on the pro-Obama propaganda.
Good article that needs to be read by all who have been duped by Dem + Imagination polls.
This is why the Dummies will prove how Dumb they are when they start screaming “Ohio was stolen” after election day.
Another. all be it anecdotal, bit of evidence. The O’Bumbler had a rally in Cleveland ant the Lakefront Airport. The local Democrat Party estimated that there would be close to 20,000+ people to see the president. It was 70Deg and clear when the President took the stage at 8:30pm. The crowd was estimated to be 12,000, but looked allot like 7500. The local paper the Plain Dealer neglected to post even one panoramic crowd shot. Must have neglected to take one?!
This is Cuyahoga County 1.3 Million 3 to one Democrat and VERY large black population. less than 12,000 people at a free event on a beautiful Thursday night, WALKING DISTANCE from inner city black neighborhoods with tens of thousands of residents.
If I was Romney I would be sure to have the FCC remind their affiliates about that when license renewal time came up.
They’ve been in the tank for Obama since 2007.
There millions of voters for Romney in every State thats never been Polled..
And if a poller called would hang up.. like me..
But will vote on election day..
I went back to 1916 and looked at the differences between the national vote percentages and the Ohio vote percentages. The Average National precentage was 48.69-46.89 (+1.8%) in favor of the Republican. The Average Ohio percentage was 50.49-45.38 (+5.11%) in favor of the Republican. The GOP average over performance was 3.11% of the National Average. The best performer was Herbert Hoover in 1932, yes 1932 (+14.91%); worst performer was of all people Warren G Harding in 1920 (-6.28%). Best in 50 years was GW Bush in 2000 (+4.02%) worst was Barry Goldwater (-3.30%) in 1964.
I stopped in 1916 because in 1912 the GOP came in third.
If Romney is up 3 to 4 Nationally, he should be up 2.69% (McCain Overperformance number) above his national margin in Ohio.
A beautiful day would be, 70 and clear during autumn in NE in OH with Obama nowhere in sight! LOL
O’Bumbler has practically taken up residence in Cleveland as he knows he has to get holder and his people to the polls. Kasich should send him a State Income Tax bill, he has been here so often!
Sigh...
They have taken up residence on NE Ohio
Good Lord! Biden was in my home town in Aug!
We have never had that sort of stuff in my home town.
Sigh...
They have taken up residence in NE Ohio
Good Lord! Biden was in my home town in Aug!
We have never had that sort of stuff in my home town.
Seems to be falling apart for the bamster.Man, I sure hope so.
Seems to be falling apart for the bamster.Man, I sure hope so.
No doubt about it. I’ve read several articles about how pollsters are getting through to only about 9% of the people they call.
People who work and have busy lives just don’t want to be bothered will pollsters, IMO.
My guess is a solid majority of that group can’t wait to either vote for Romney or against Obama. I’m one of them.
I think there’s a landslide coming.
Praying constantly that you are right, FRiend =)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.