Posted on 10/26/2012 6:43:11 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate,...
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Perhaps that is why when they are giving speeches Romney looks and sounds upbeat and confident, like he is getting ready to measure the drapes for the oval office as soon as he finishes his speech and Obama looks angry and down. The campaigns internal polling is much better (they spend FAR more money on it) than the public polling outfits. I have a feeling both Romney and Obama's internal polling is showing Romney winning by a substantial margin.
Ras changing his Demorats weighting isn’t suspect but changing it by 100% is.
Sneak peek about WI: R:49 O;49 with leaners
Without leaners: R:48 O:47
Tied with Independents
+3R Sample
Rasmussen
You must have just come out of a coma or something.
+3R??? or +3D like he has been doing all along?
It's not D vs. R. It's Old vs. Young. Cell phone users tend to be younger than land line users. So polling just land lines tends to under-count the Young who are much more likely to be D.
This is a problem for Rasmussen who polls only land lines. I've always assumed that he has some secret sauce that he applies to correct this potential error in his polls. But who knows.
Why would Ras move his sample to D+6? He doesn't seem motivated by the need to "keep it close".
It's just %'s... It's mostly driven by age, but also by urban/rural demographics. People who live in cities are much less likely to answer a land line, if they have one. I know, WE don't in our house. NO ONE calls our land line except poll company and credit card salespeople.
People in rural areas answer the phone.
But, younger people, in particular, are ONLY reachable by cell phone.. and, sadly, they skew Democrat.
I heard Rasmussen on Hugh Hewitt's show the other day talking about it.. (see my other post just above)..
He said, they've done some special polling and research on this. They also try to make corrections based on some internet polling?? Not sure how that works.
Makes sense to me... but still, in EVERY election, it seems to me that Republicans do BETTER in the actual voting than predicted. So, yea... maybe something ELSE is going on too??
Yup, there’s that 47 percent Romney was talking about!
Cheers!
I wish we would see another 72 or 80 or 84, but I think California and nearly the entire northeast, led by New York, render that highly unlikely.
Excellent! Thank you very much!
You’d think with 17% lead in indies he’s have more than a 3point lead. I think many must be lying to the polster. Either republicans saying they are indie...or republicans lying they are going to vote for 0. Or something...it’s just hard to believe if we are always told indies decide the election to be ahead by 17% and only be up by 3....of course it could be that there aren’t very many indies anymore.
He was up at a peak of 7. you can go to the trendline at gallup to see that.
I have the same feeling, and I also believe this is why Dick Morris all but guarantees a Romney win of between 4 and 8 points. I know he has at least some access to internal polling.
At one point, Gallup did have Romney up by 7. You didn’t hear about it because suddenly the media found other things to report besides the latest polls.
I hope this hurricane/superstorm does not impact things by helping Obama.
I don’t think it will....the hurricane hitting New Orleans did not, but still....always get worried national disasters will help the president.
This could be a historic 100-year storm.
It really could be that bad.
47% oh the irony...
“Almost every one of them is also picking up dramatic leads for Romney amongst Independents. You do the math.”
It seems to be common knowledge that alot of republicans have changed their id to independent....except it didn’t happen.
Looking at Rasmussen’s own poll, the percent of people who self identify as GOP went....up! And the percent of people who identify as Dem went down. These NEW independents are not stealth GOP voters, whom they should try to avoid overcounting. They are disappointed democrats...and the models we are seeing are indeed double counting them.
We saw the Dem +6 number posted here...and many asked for a source. I have not seen it yet, so for now I don’t know if Rasmussen is really using this. If he is, I disagree with him. His own party id poll contradicts this, and the mid-term turnout contradicts this. And anecdotally, one can observe that the crowd turnout for Obama rallies is way down from 2008, which he won by 7.2%...does anybody really think his enthusiasm is still that high, or even half that high?
All of these polls (with the exception of Gallup) are alot like trying to formulate the next year’s flu vaccine. They use last year’s virus as the predictor of next year’s (and they usually get it wrong btw). 2008 was a unique year...they shouldn’t be weighting it nearly as heavily as they are.
OK, OK, I don’t really think CA and NY will go red this year. However, I am hoping (and guessing) some other unexpected (but not as unexpected, :) ) states will turn red.
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