Yikes… this is uncomfortably close if Romney’s up there scrambling around in ME for that +1 EV.
I’m almost certain Obama’s camp has been anticipating a 2004-style election. All Kerry had to do was to peel off Ohio in 2004 to win. Hence Obama’s early and intense focus on that state.
Because of census shifts in electoral votes though, that wouldn’t put Obama over the top this time. He needs New Mexico, which he’ll almost certainly get, to tie it, and one other Bush state to win it. That one other state could be Iowa or Nevada.
The Gallup demographic polling posted today shows that party identification is almost the same as it was in 2004, way different from the Dem advantage in 2008, but with Repubs 3 points ahead of where they were in 2004. That’s a little cushion for Romney if true, but not enough to rely on.