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I’m almost certain Obama’s camp has been anticipating a 2004-style election. All Kerry had to do was to peel off Ohio in 2004 to win. Hence Obama’s early and intense focus on that state.
Because of census shifts in electoral votes though, that wouldn’t put Obama over the top this time. He needs New Mexico, which he’ll almost certainly get, to tie it, and one other Bush state to win it. That one other state could be Iowa or Nevada.