If he wins all the 2004 Bush states except NM (5) and OH (18), then it’s a 269-269 tie. That includes Romney winning NV (6) and IA (6).
To break the tie he’s got to flip one of these 2004 blue states.
PA (20)
MI (16)
WI (10)
NH (4)
ME (at least 1 EV)
I continue to think NV is the most vitally important state for Romney to win. WI seems like the next one to go for, because it can make up for losing IA and break the tie that results from losing OH.
The fact that Romney is campaigning at all in ME tells me that he thinks he might lose OH. There’s no other reason to go for that 1 EV unless it’s needed as a tiebreaker, and the tie can only happen mathematically given the current swing states if OH is lost.
Yikes… this is uncomfortably close if Romney’s up there scrambling around in ME for that +1 EV.