Posted on 10/25/2012 8:50:11 PM PDT by Kenny
47% is probably the most famous number to come out of the 2012 presidential campaign. That’s the percentage of Americans Mitt Romney suggested he was writing off when captured on that famous secretly recorded video during a Florida fundraiser.
But 47% also represents the critical dividing line between how the Romney and Obama campaigns gauge the President’s chances of re-election, viewed through the prisms of their closely guarded internal polling data. In general, the Republicans see a ceiling of around 47% for Obama’s share of the vote in most of the nine battleground states that will decide this contest. The Obama team says it consistently measures their man above that magic line, at around 48-50%.
Both campaigns employ top-flight pollsters who are paid to scientifically take the pulse of the electorate in the battleground states and deliver to the candidate and his strategists an unvarnished view of the state of the race at any given moment. It doesn’t well serve either the incumbent or the challenger to sugarcoat the situation by producing poll results that overstate support (as some pollsters are famous for doing). The key differential between the Chicago and Boston methodologies appears to be assumptions about the final makeup of the electorate in the nine battleground contests.
If the President’s internal data is correct, he is indeed likely to win, pushing off a floor above 47%; using his superior get-out-the-vote operation to dominate early and absentee voting and hold his own on Election Day; and taking a significant share of the small remaining undecided vote. These numbers apply to Chicago’s data from the battleground states, where the President’s support in his campaign’s internal research has consistently outperformed his national poll standing.
(Excerpt) Read more at thepage.time.com ...
“Early voting is the biggest threat to our nation and the Republican Party.”
Republicans work. They don’t have all day to stand in line on Election Day so early voting helps them as well.
Do you recall who else was on that panel?
Can I assume that their take was that Obama was not in superior competitive position relative to Romney?
Poll Ping.
Romney is in this to win....he's not a baby....he knows what goes on.....he's not nieve....
these pollsters are manipulators however...
you'll get the bamey ones who will push all the bamey positives and, truely, there are no media/pollsters who are ever in pubs corner...
stay positive....donate...volunteer...vote...
there will be a mafia like war among the rats though, which will at least be entertaining...and then maybe some of them will be forced to be differentiate themselves by being conservative...
Doing your schtick again, Slayton?
Dead men tell no tales however, sometimes they do vote. It is said that 9 out of 10 dead people prefer donkeys to elephants!
Let’s not forget the donkey ‘money’ quote: “Vote early and vote often!”
I’ve got news for ya, Mark: they aren’t confident.
if Romney loses...the public will get voter fraud fixed once and for all...with an axe if necessary...not a soul will believe Obambi won....not one
It would have been nice had Halperin devoted even one sentence to laying out the case as to why this is all so much folderol.
Not going to happen.
Only in the deluded world of the Left does 47% beat 50%.
When they (in this case a shill for the campaign, not the campaign itself, but the following applies to both) use a tautological adjective to modify an already tautalogical-adjective-mangled-into-a-noun, it's psycho-structurally over.
Might as well just use "absolute" or it's adverb, "absolutely" - Obama's most worn out tautological distractives. The private sector is absolutely not doing fine. The video was absolutely reprehensible.
A great concept/phrase is that of damning with faint praise.
Here, we have double damning by attempting to modify a tautology.
The fact that obama is coming to Cleveland this week instead of swing-voter territory in Ohio means he is very weak in our state. 48-46 o/R? Not even close here I would say. His ground effort must not be doing much good.
Does all that sound like a great GOTV effort?
Please read the spreadsheet links that we have posted here for two months. Ad I think the number is closer to -175,000 from 08 absentees for the Ds.
You are right! All we can do is stay positive, donate, volunteer, vote, and pray.
I am leery after the myth of the PUMAs from the last election. I don’t believe there were any. It was just a red herring perpetrated by the media to lull the GOP into missteps. It seems very odd to me that all the numbers are 47%.
In the words of Yogi Berra - “It isn’t over till it’s over.”
Yep, looks really good for Romney, but he hasn’t won yet and the ‘rats are desperate. They’d like nothing more than for us to get over confident and end up losing. And, they cheat.
We still have over a week to go. Keep fighting the good fight.
The Absentee votes and Early voting are being counted together in these numbers for 2012. The 2008 numbers are absentees only...Ohio didn't have early voting back then.
The numbers change every couple of days so save the link under your favorites and you can check back regularly to see what's happening in Ohio.
Best Regards,
umbob
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