Gallup Tracking Poll: R50/O47

Gallup ^ | 10/24 | Gallup

[tatown]

R50/O47

[HannibalHamlinJr]

There was a time when the best bet was to follow Rasmussen. That's no longer true.

As for Gallup - ignore them completely - the good or the bad - regardless of their politics (internal biases or pressure from Holder), about which we can only speculate, they have a history of volatility, wild swings.

The best bet is to combine

1. Rasmussen trend but not it's actuals. Ras is the least volatile. The trend is sound, the D/R/I model is questionable. D+3 is what's been reported here nationally, don't know the state models. Ras shows solid trend. Yesterday's +4 could go temporarily to +3 before hitting +5 by early next week.
2. Where Romney is campaigning, where Obama is campaigning. The two campaign's internal polls are the most likely to not be influenced by anything. We can't see their polls, but they can't hide where they are physically and where they are advertising. Obama is retreating, RR is advancing.
3. Add minimum two points to RCP national average for qualitative Obama-Hypnosis-anomalies that translate into an unknown but SWAGgable quantitative in 2012 vs 2008. The debates administered the anti-collective-hypnosis vaccine to America. Having never been used before, psychiatric and medical professionals can not predict their final efficacy.
4. LS's Ohio early numbers don't guarantee anything, but they do point strongly in a certain direction, and are at least hard numbers relating to a phenomenon that is quite unhappy for Democrats.

Gallup can't be trusted for good news or bad news.

If God demanded an answer from me as to where my doubt lies - it's 'do we get Penn and/or Mich or not' - we'll get WI and IA and everything easier than those, including Ohio. My doubt is "302 or 338?" (1 from Maine)

Also from Rasmussen: "Romney is trusted more than Obama on economic issues and energy policy, while Obama has the edge on national security. The president has a 10-point advantage among those who have already voted."

3 out of 4 of these facts support Romney. The one that doesn't is the least important to voters, especially swingers, independents and undecideds. Also, Rasmussen was two days in a row w/Romney @ +4.

I think we are looking at the quantitative reality lagging the new qualitative/narrative items by about a week. By this time next week, we'll probably be at Ras with Romney solidly @ 4 (probably a round down from 4.4 or so) nationally, moving to 5, and then anywhere from 1 to 2.5 more in the voting booth.

[wiseprince]

pfft!! You can check my recent history and my very distant history and you’ll see that I didn’t want Obama to win 4 years ago and I certainly don’t want him to win now. The reason I said that is because I’ve been here long enough to know that what I said could come off as “concern troll” but I’m actually just concerned. Someone up thread posted where McCain was at this time and I noticed that Gallup did have wild swings (from O+2 to O+10 in a few days) so that calmed me down a little. Still, it would be nice to see some of these state polls start showing Romney with a lead (even a small one)

[nhwingut]

I see some noise so far. I see an incumbent president who, 12 days out from an election, has yet to crack 50 in any national poll. I see Romney winning independents across the board in most every poll(averaging about +9 when you aggregate all RCP polls). I see an energized conservative base. I see the RNC with about 100 million more than the DNC. I see a Benghazi scandal ready to explode.

And I still see Romney up 50-47 in Gallup and 50-46 in Rasmussen with less than 2 weeks to go.

Obama may have gotten a bounce from the debate (and I could even see the race tied by week’s end or within MOE). But it will shake out and I see Romney closing the deal next week, pulling away for a solid 3-4 point win. Obama has not been able to convince independents that another 4 years is the way to go - even during Romney’s down time- and all through Obama’s term. You can’t win without winning Indies.

[nhwingut]

Still, it would be nice to see some of these state polls start showing Romney with a lead (even a small one)

Not sure about your concern re: "state polls."

What state polls do you want to see Romney doing well in?

In the past 3 weeks, he's basically wrapped up NC, FL, VA and CO. That's pretty damn strong. He's now leading in NH, tied in OH and IA. And down only a couple in places like Wisconsin and Nevada. Granted Ohio has been a tougher nut to crack than the others, but Romney is expanding his map, while Obama's firewall is cooked.

In my analysis, Romney is at 257 and Obama is at 237.

The tossup states remaining are OH (18), NV (6), WI (10), IA (6), NH (4).

It's Romney's to lose.

[Raycpa]

One or two points can be rounding, as one or two can also be error margin. That said, it would make sense that Obama brings home his base and his base is probably that magic 47% number.

[GCC Catholic]

You live in Colorado, which is a swing state. Your vote could cancel the effect of one of the 0bama voters.

If you aren't willing to vote for Romney, I can't believe that your hopes for his success are sincere. If your hopes are sincere, I hope you will reconsider how you will vote.

[wiseprince]

I haven’t seen the IA poll that has them tied that you’re referencing. A lot of the polls that have him losing aren’t being posted here (i.e. RAS has him down 3 in Nevada).

I guess my biggest concern is with all of this “Romney is surging” talk it’s still looking like he can’t do much without Ohio. I got the same 257 you have (I’ve heard 1EV in Maine is locked up although I haven’t seen any evidence for myself). For argument sake let’s say 258. Give Romney IA and NH and we’ve got 268. Regardless of what people say NV and WI are leaning Obama and I don’t really see any evidence to contradict that. Which means with 2 weeks to go it all comes down to Ohio. As bad as Obama has been it’s just too close. I was really hoping that there would be another realistic path by this point and with NV and WI trending O I don’t know that their is

[paul544]

There is more than a little evidence of Romney’s momentum stopped and maybe reversed. Gallup, IBD and some state polls have put a real damper on Mittmentum.

[Cruising For Freedom]

Your posting history is very educational. Thank you.

[WashingtonSource]

And there is a lot (as opposed to more than a little) of evidence Mittmentum continues.

[paul544]

Welcome.

[nhwingut]

Looking at your posting history, you seem to always be concerned.

[nhwingut]

I disagree. But that’s what it’s all about.

To start, Wisconsin is not “trending” Obama. Nor is Nevada. The movement has been towards Romney - in every state poll. Not one state poll has Obama been trending up.

WI and NV may be leaning Obama, but they are not trending.

Obama has one path - Ohio. Romney can get there with many paths. Romney is spreading the playing field. Obama is not.

FInally, on a national level, Obama has never once touched 50% in any national (LV) poll with 12 days to go. That is real bad for an incumbent.

[1035rep]

“There is more than a little evidence of Romney’s momentum stopped and maybe reversed.”

No seeing any evidence of that, but thanks for playing.

[NKP_Vet]

“As for Gallup - ignore them completely”

You got that right. No way in 40 hells the Kenyan picks up 4 points in 5 days and no way in 40 hells his approval number is at 53%.

Absolutely impossible. This is Gallup buckling under the threat of a lawsuit from Axelrod. At the rate they are going, expect Gallup to be tied on election day or the Kenyan up by 3-5 points.

Follow Ramussen, the hell with Gallup. I don’t think
Scott Rasmussen would back down from the truth due to a threat from Chicago thug Axelrod.

[HailReagan78]

So many hand-wringers around here..Some of you people need a stiff drink. Or get some action. Or both.

So Obama has a couple good polling days, and he gets all the way up to...47%? Relax..

This was always destined to be a somewhat close election, for no other reason than demographics alone. You run this same election with demos from 20yrs ago, and Romney wins easily by double-digits. Its only gonna get worse, with so many immigrants breeding like rabbits..Add to the fact that you have 40% of whites that will actually vote for the Socialists, rather than voting together in a bloc like the blacks and hispanics do.

[july4thfreedomfoundation]

“I’ve heard 1EV in Maine is locked up.....”

On the 5:00 PM news today on a local CBS affiliate in Bangor, Maine, the anchor mentioned that Team Romney is ready to launch TV ads in Maine. Romney is going to try to take the entire state and, if that is not possible, they want to capture at least one electoral vote in the second congressional district (the northern half of Maine). I live in this district, so I’ll do my part.

I saw some generic Romney and Obama ads during the Summer Olympics last August. Since then, none, with the exception of one Romney ad on October 1st, I haven’t seen any ads for either candidate.

[GVnana]

This tightening was almost inevitable. Very difficult to unseat an incumbent president. This election is all about turnout.

[romanesq]

You do this Republic no favors. Thanks for nothing and especially so if the Marxist somehow prevails.

[StarFan]

I too was getting concerned however to hear Romney today say that the Obama campaign is unravelling (even if untrue) made my heart dance. He seemed more upbeat than usual and I’m hoping his internals show something we’re dreaming of. To see the huge crowds coming out to listen to him is also a positive sign. If it were in the bag for Obama or razor thin, I doubt our rather lazy President would be on a non-stop 24 hour campaign binge.