Rassmussen New Hampshire - Romney 50 Obama 48

rasmussen ^

[Perdogg]

The presidential race in New Hampshire remains neck-and-neck, with Mitt Romney stretching to a two-point lead. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely New Hampshire Voters, taken the night after the final presidential debate, finds Romney earning 50% support, while President Obama has 48% of the vote. One percent (1%) likes some other candidate, and another one percent (1%) is undecided. This New Hampshire survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

[Road Glide]

“Romney will have his only win of the night in New England... he will carry NH...”

Looks good for Romney in New Hampshire.

But he also has a shot at picking up a single vote from that one Congressional district in Maine that leans to Republicans.

He is going to need every EV he can get.

Regardless of the puffery and over-optimism shown by many here on FR, I believe this is going to be a -very- close election, at least in the Electoral College.

Based on the stats I see at Rasmussen’s electoral college scoreboard right now, looks to me like the election could go Romney - 277, Obama - 252 (assuming Mr. Romney gets the one Congressional district in Maine that is leaning towards him, otherwise, it will be 276-253).
(you can view Ras’ electoral scoreboard at
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard)

This assumes Romney wins New Hampshire, Ohio, and Iowa (the latter two states show a “tied race” right now, 48-48 in both).

I’m hoping Mr. Romney can pull this off...

[Massimo75]

In your list I’d change the side of Colorado and Ohio.

Colorado was voting Republican more than the nation years ago, but with the demographic change they had in the last decade or so the trend is going the other way. In 2008 it gives an almost 9 point lead to Obama while nationally he had a 7.2 points lead.
Ohio on the other hand is much closer to the national average but typically gives slightly a better than the nation result to the GOP guy,and a little worst than the nation result to the dem, with the exception of 2004 when Kerry had practically the same in Ohio that he had nationally.

[AFPhys]

The certainty that goes “if state X goes to Romney, state Y will also go to him” is faulty. Though their party IDs and history may have some bearing on these things, the way campaigning has gone in in each state, as well as the economic and social conditions specific to it, also have a bearing. States which have not been accosted over the last two months by carpet-bombing political ads may react very differently in the next two weeks.

[StAnDeliver]

"I’ll take it. New Hampshire plus Colorado plus Wisconsin means we don’t have to win Ohio, IIRC."

2008 + IN, NC, FL, VA, NE1, CO, IA, NH, NV = 273EV

2008 + IN, NC, FL, VA, NE1, CO, IA, WI = 273EV

2008 + IN, NC, FL, VA, NE1, CO, IA, NH, WI = 277EV

[Perdogg]

not a bad sample.

[StAnDeliver]

"But he also has a shot at picking up a single vote from that one Congressional district in Maine that leans to Republicans. He is going to need every EV he can get."

Really? Where's the realistic scenario where ME2 does jack squat? Where also is the polling that shows ME2 going Romney before WI or PA?

[StAnDeliver]

"Ohio on the other hand is much closer to the national average but typically gives slightly a better than the nation result to the GOP guy,and a little worst than the nation result to the dem, with the exception of 2004 when Kerry had practically the same in Ohio that he had nationally."

Oh my God, don't talk perfect sense to these people...Romney wins National PV, he wins Ohio. Period.

2004 National	50.7	48.3
2004 Ohio	50.8	48.7

[johnsondavid841]

I'm so glad Romney's leading, i see light in the future!