[NittanyLion]

I think it's a flawed strategy, but in a dynamic political environment so is the strategy of employing turnout models based largely on the previous election.

Bottom line is that I think the likely result is somewhere between how people self-identify and what actually occurred in 2008. Having said that, then Romney's lead is bounded on the lower end at 0 and on the high end at 7...a pretty good place to be two weeks out.

[jwalsh07]

The only time Gallup has missed outside the MOE is Dewey/Truman. And their misses within the MOE don’t favor either party. If you look at Gallups history on polling Presidential races in October/Novemeber they are historically very, very good. Which is why I knew McCain was done in October of 2008.