The only time Gallup has missed outside the MOE is Dewey/Truman. And their misses within the MOE don’t favor either party. If you look at Gallups history on polling Presidential races in October/Novemeber they are historically very, very good. Which is why I knew McCain was done in October of 2008.
I have noticed that immediately before the election they are accurate, but I have felt for a long time that 6-8 weeks out from the election that they weren’t.
It is almost like the data radically shifts.
Most people wouldn’t measure someone’s accuracy to forecast only 1-3 days before an known event, they would do it based on several points in the past to see how well it predicted the final outcome.
I prefer to use weeks, 1, 4, 13, 26
Let’s hope history holds true...