[dila813]

I have noticed that immediately before the election they are accurate, but I have felt for a long time that 6-8 weeks out from the election that they weren’t.

It is almost like the data radically shifts.

Most people wouldn’t measure someone’s accuracy to forecast only 1-3 days before an known event, they would do it based on several points in the past to see how well it predicted the final outcome.

I prefer to use weeks, 1, 4, 13, 26

[jwalsh07]

The data does radically shift because Gallup changes from registered to likely voter screen. The horrible secret that not many want to acknowledge is that if there are a lot more democrat voters in America than republican voters and if everybody voted every 4 years we'd lose and America would be a third world shithole.

This is despite the fact that twice as many Americans self identify as conservative compared to liberal.