No they're not going for a mandate. That's delusional. They may need to carry PA because OH is iffy.
Funny looking at your posting history, nice to see you that showed up during this year..
(That'd be *you*, lasereye.)
You wrote
No they're not going for a mandate. That's delusional. They may need to carry PA because OH is iffy.
But you wrote in this thread:
There hasn’t been a Presidential election with R+1. Bush’s wins were with a small Democrat edge in party ID. I don’t see why it should be R+1 any more than it should be D+9.
The answer is that the Obaama wave election of 2008 was D+8; and in order for things to be D+9, there must be an even GREATER surge of enthusiasm for Teh One than there was in 2008.
And even at D+9, Romney leads by 1.
But a D+9 is absolutely, provably, UTTERLY false.
In Ohio, actual early results by party show a 7-point shift in *early ballots* in favor of the GOP. (McCain won the "election day" voting in Ohio, but was so far behind from early balloting that it was out of reach).
Here are the details.
Another clue can be seen by the recent activity by both campaigns: they have access to internal polls which had *better* be accurate -- if they are not, and the candidate loses because of it, the pollster goes out of business.
Obama is pulling out of Florida and North Carolina, and begins campaigning in the all-important bellwether state of ...New Hampshire?
Romney pulls resources from other states and *begins* campaigning in PA (with rumors of Michigan to come) -- both of which had been called as "safe Obaama" by all the pundits.
Romney and Ryan regularly pull crowds of 8,000-10,000 (similar to Palin) whereas according to the known Koch-brothers-puppet-organization Rolling Stone, all this year Obaama has been touring with Rock Stars -- note how when he didn't, even though it was the Democrat National Convention, attendance collapsed to the point that they had to relocate the venue.
Not to mention the "turning the crowd of 18,000 to 5,000" fiasco in Milwaukee.
And you have newspapers such as the Orlando Sentinel and The Tennessean endorsing Romney.
The Washington Post (itself nefariously funded in secret by Jerry Falwell, right?) even reports on a DNC funding shortfall.
And log into any thread you like. FReeper after FReeper reports -- eyewitness reports -- of a preponderance of Romney signs and a lack of Obaama signs, even in prior Obaama strongholds:
here,
here,
here,
here,
here,
here,
and read this.
Oh, yes, do recall a convicted felon getting 43% of the Dem primary vote against Obama in West Virginia earlier this year?
And then there's the little matter of this. Winners, *especially* incumbents, don't have to do this kind of thing.
I think I'll keep this post handy in case you decide to resume defeatist trolling.
Cheers!