In National Polling, It’s Gallup vs. the Rest (Nate Silver in full liberal melt-down mode)

New York Times ^ | 10/19/2012 | Nate Silver

[radpolis]

The Gallup national tracking poll now shows a very strong lead for Mitt Romney. As of Friday, he was ahead by six points among likely voters, having led by seven points on Thursday.

However, the poll’s results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case.

Other national polls now show a very slight lead for President Obama on average, while state polls continue to indicate a narrow advantage for the president in tipping-point states like Ohio. The FiveThirtyEight forecast has Mr. Obama as a modest favorite in the election largely on the basis of the state polls.

[CaptainK]

Nate mentioned 60 seats were possible but couldn’t bring himself to embrace that number and settled for a 50 something final estimate.

Charlie Cook was predicting 60 seats.
So was Mark Halprin.

2010 tarnished the golden boy’s crystal ball.

[fortheDeclaration]

Yes, as the election draws near, that is the sample that matters and it will show the real poll numbers.

[Sooth2222]

My recollection was that in 2010 Rasmussen called the historical Republican takeover of congress correctly, but got the margin wrong on some races, particularly in the West. If the worst thing a pollster ever does is get a few races in an off-year election incorrect, I still think that's pretty good. The bottom line is that Rasmussen was still right, and Pelosi appeared to be shocked that she needed to move out of her office.

In effect, Silver is picking off all the poll results he doesn't like, while blowing off all the methodological problems with the ones that he does like. What was it that Mark Twain quoted of Benjamin Disraeli? "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." The general thought holds for statisticians, too. Wearing a white lab coat doesn't turn anyone into a scientist.

[NKP_Vet]

http://news.yahoo.com/other-polls-show-tight-race-gallup-stands-apart-020811767.html

The liberal press will doubt and downplay any poll that does not show their savior leading. They had better get used to saying President Romney.