VA looks much better than it did a couple of weeks ago, but I still worry these polls are underdoing the black vote in VA.... or maybe Romney is making some headway in the liberal Northern VA DC suburbs because it isn’t looking that good here in Hampton Roads, which historically breaks about 50/50.
The good news is that voter fraud is low here as you have to show either ID or a registration card to vote.
I don’t think there are enough votes (knock on wood) in NoVa to counter Romney in the rest of the state.
Tidewater looks good for Romney from where I’m sitting. A veritable sea of Romney signs in a generally blue area.
Depends on what part of Hampton Roads you’re referring to...I live and work in the region most of the year, and my business takes me throughout the region. From what I see, Romney will win the 1st Congressional District (York County/Tidewater Peninsula) by a huge margin; ditto for the 4th Congressional District (Randy Forbes) which includes much of suburban Chesapeake and Suffolk on the southside.
I also think we’ll do well in the 2nd District, which now includes part of the southside and peninsula (it was redrawn to help incumbent GOP Congressman Scott Rigell get re-elected). These districts range from marginally GOP to heavily GOP (the 1st District, represented by Rob Wittman is a GOP +7), and enthusiasm is off the charts. On the other hand, Obama will do well in the urban areas (Norfolk, Portsmouth, Newport News and Hampton) but enthusiasm isn’t nearly as high.
Even with a big turnout in Northern VA (and a record minority vote), the Dims carried the state by only a slim margin. Won’t happen this time around.
Here in the People’s Republic of Nerthern Virginia, anecdotally, I can share that in 2008 Obama props were everyhwere.
In 2012, not so much. The difference is stark.
If Romney can keep NOVA even or at a slight loss (0 to -5%), he’ll carry the Old Dominion.
My personal feeling is that in 2008, folks in NOVA wanted to be part of the “historical” event, and voted on emotion.
Don’t really feel the same this time around.