Election 2012 Rasmussen Virginia: Romney-50 Obama-47; (10/18; 750 LV)

Rasmussen ^ | 10/19/12 | rasmussen

[Ravi]

above

[Ravi]

750 LV. Bigger sample than the 500 he's been using for individual states. Not sure when he made that change but accuracy increases I would think.

[JoshuaLawrenceChamberlain]

Unfortunately he has R tied with the Clown in the national poll at 48% each. Hate that Rass has that

[Perdogg]

It reduces the marging of error. Error = sqrt((R% X O%)/(N-1))

[Michigander222]

Still trending positive :) Itchin’ to vote!

[Perdogg]

Swing State R-49 O-47

[Hoodat]

ping

[sunmars]

still under opinion Ras is keeping it close to keep selling polls. In 2008 a lot of polling stopped early as it was known to be a blowout and they lost revenue.

[Ravi]

He was ahead in the two nites post debate if you read his discussion. Tuesday before debate must have been a bad romney day. It rolls off tomorrow. Again all MOE imo so all this doesn’t mean a whole lot. As long as Obama approval is underwater, I believe we win.

[gswilder]

Who was ahead in post debate discusion? Romney or Obama?

[NY4Romney]

Yep, Romney is polling higher post debate according to the discussion from Rass...great news.

And I think we’ve won VA.

[Ravi]

romney

[Puppage]

In 2008 a lot of polling stopped early as it was known to be a blowout

2008 wasn't a blowout. Far from it.

[LS]

I think this shows what I have started to suspect a week ago: Ras is now trailing many pollsters, certainly at the state level. Suffolk had this last week (not at 50, but conclusively knew that Romney had won).

At 49-48 O here in Ohio, I'll be shocked if we don't now see a couple of polls with Romney ahead 50-48, something like that.

[Perdogg]

the 95% MOE would be about 3.47%.

[SoftwareEngineer]

Hi Ravi,

I miss your daily updates on Absentee ballots and early voting.

When you have time today, would you collate them and post them?

Between Tatown, Perdogg, NHWingnut, InterceptPoint, ScottinVA,you, me and a couple of others, I think we constitute the bulk of the “Poll Freaks”

Thanks so much!!

[bigbob]

Statistically, yes. However folks need to remember that sampling is the biggest source of “real” error and I’m still convinced all the pollsters, Rasmussen included, aren’t reflecting reality by their sampling methodology.

[wolfman23601]

VA looks much better than it did a couple of weeks ago, but I still worry these polls are underdoing the black vote in VA.... or maybe Romney is making some headway in the liberal Northern VA DC suburbs because it isn’t looking that good here in Hampton Roads, which historically breaks about 50/50.

The good news is that voter fraud is low here as you have to show either ID or a registration card to vote.

[Perdogg]

Mathematically, once the sample size exceeds 35 it is no different from a population .

[wolfman23601]

What people don’t understand is that 3.47% is per candidate so it is really a 6.94% MOE.

If it is R - 50 O - 47

95% of the time the final result will be between a 53.47 - 43.53 Romney landslide and a 4 point Obama win.

[Perdogg]

I don’t think there are enough votes (knock on wood) in NoVa to counter Romney in the rest of the state.