Posted on 10/19/2012 6:38:39 AM PDT by Ravi
It is still important. If he loses N. Virginia 55-45 instead of the usual 60-40, that is actually going to help more than a historic GOTV effort in the mountains.
Romney will run up huge margins in southwest VA, which borders West Virginia. Keep in mind that during the primary, a felon almost won the closed democratic primary in WV (he got over 40% of the vote and won quite a few counties)
I believe that in N. Virginia there are some Romney supporters responding to the pollsters as pro-Obama because either they or someone in their household is employed by the Federal Government and they feel it would be a risk not to say Obama.
>> I don’t think there are enough votes (knock on wood) in NoVa to counter Romney in the rest of the state.
Whatever happened with Virgil Goode?
Is that doucheba... er, sorry, I mean fine upstanding uber-conservative any kind of a factor anymore?
Oh I hope so.
This jibes with what I’m seeing in tidewater. A whole lot of Romney signs, some hussein. The north part of the Commonwealth will go hard for hussein, the west and central hard for Romney, with tidewater breaking the tie. This go round, I’m pretty confident that tidewater will go Romney.
Virginia is just that way. It stays a tossup till the end and then cuts one way or the other and then you’re left wondering why it was ever considered a tossup.
Hey man, if you still want to trade votes, I’m in. I’ll give you a Goode down in Tejas for a Romney up your way. I’m voting Mon/Tues. early here in fort worth so lemme know. I’ll take a shot of my ballot to confirm if u want - I’m dead serious btw.
Tidewater looks good for Romney from where I’m sitting. A veritable sea of Romney signs in a generally blue area.
I’m trying to do updates Mon/Thurs so as to get more information in through to the election. Day to day changes are small amounts but over a period of a few days or a week, changes become more apparent.
Yeah I do have that early vote/poll junkie thing going on. May need a 12 step after the election.
Rasmussen’s numbers are becoming stranger by the day - Romney up by 3 in Virginia today, but also tied nationwide with Obama 48 -48 today - but yesterday Romney was up by 2, 49-47, and Rasmussen’s narrative says that polling has been going better for Romney since the debate on Tuesday - doesn’t fit very well.......
Depends on what part of Hampton Roads you’re referring to...I live and work in the region most of the year, and my business takes me throughout the region. From what I see, Romney will win the 1st Congressional District (York County/Tidewater Peninsula) by a huge margin; ditto for the 4th Congressional District (Randy Forbes) which includes much of suburban Chesapeake and Suffolk on the southside.
I also think we’ll do well in the 2nd District, which now includes part of the southside and peninsula (it was redrawn to help incumbent GOP Congressman Scott Rigell get re-elected). These districts range from marginally GOP to heavily GOP (the 1st District, represented by Rob Wittman is a GOP +7), and enthusiasm is off the charts. On the other hand, Obama will do well in the urban areas (Norfolk, Portsmouth, Newport News and Hampton) but enthusiasm isn’t nearly as high.
Even with a big turnout in Northern VA (and a record minority vote), the Dims carried the state by only a slim margin. Won’t happen this time around.
George Allen will win, too.
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Here in the People’s Republic of Nerthern Virginia, anecdotally, I can share that in 2008 Obama props were everyhwere.
In 2012, not so much. The difference is stark.
If Romney can keep NOVA even or at a slight loss (0 to -5%), he’ll carry the Old Dominion.
My personal feeling is that in 2008, folks in NOVA wanted to be part of the “historical” event, and voted on emotion.
Don’t really feel the same this time around.
Ras derailed two weeks ago when he went from R+1 to D+3. He's in a world of credibility hurt now if he switches back and suddenly matches Gallup. Guessing he'll sauce it up somehow to get Romney to 50 nationally because Scott is already looking odd for having his bground state polls with Romney at 50 put the lie to his national PV stance.
only problem I have with your theory is this...The MSM pollsters are dishonest, they are ALL going to show race closing for Obama, just no doubt about it.
NBC/WSJ is one of the worst, along with Fox. Why WSJ allows itself to be part of that lying poll is just beyond me.
I have low opinion of all polling firms ,for full disclosure
But I will be so freaking surprised if I am wrong...Hope for sake of Country I am wrong
only problem I have with your theory is this...The MSM pollsters are dishonest, they are ALL going to show race closing for Obama, just no doubt about it.
NBC/WSJ is one of the worst, along with Fox. Why WSJ allows itself to be part of that lying poll is just beyond me.
I have low opinion of all polling firms ,for full disclosure
But I will be so freaking surprised if I am wrong...Hope for sake of Country I am wrong
only problem I have with your theory is this...The MSM pollsters are dishonest, they are ALL going to show race closing for Obama, just no doubt about it.
NBC/WSJ is one of the worst, along with Fox. Why WSJ allows itself to be part of that lying poll is just beyond me.
I have low opinion of all polling firms ,for full disclosure
But I will be so freaking surprised if I am wrong...Hope for sake of Country I am wrong
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