With all the Obama/Crowley double-team "Why I just happen to have a transcript here!" BS, what has also resonated with voters and really sunk Obama was his claiming that high gas prices are a sign of a growing economy.
The new unemployment claims jump and the revelation that welfare recipients are the biggest budget item for 2011 with over a Trillion bucks going to them, the gap should widen further.
So in my scenario, the "average" outcome is Bush-Kerry, at least as far as the national vote is concerned. Right now, with Gallup at +7 R, Rasmussen +2 R, and the over-sampled D polls showing O up a point or two, I'll stick to the "average" outcome for now. If I had to guess at a Nov. 6 outcome, though, the trend is still in Romney's favor.