Posted on 10/16/2012 5:47:43 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2
RCP is now calling PA Senate Smith (R) vs Casey (D) a tossup. They now call it 45D to 43R with 12 tossups.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
AZ: Open (R) CT: Open (D) IN: Open (R) MA: Brown (R) MO: McCaskill (D) MT: Tester (D) NV: Heller (R) ND: Open (D) OH: Brown (D) PA: Casey (D) VA: Open (D) WI: Open (D)
The funny thing - the ads actually make Casey look like a guy who cares and want to reform government.
And I have not seen ONE Casey ad.
RCP is now calling PA Senate Smith (R) vs Casey (D) a tossup. They now call it 45D to 43R with 12 tossups.
I never held out too much hope that the PA senate seat would go Republican so this is a pleasant surprise. I think Philly and its suburbs are still solidly Dem but I think the difference this year is the northern and western coal country, which have been traditional Dem areas, are a lot more willing to vote for both Romney and Smith.
There was one “pro Casey” ad a while ago. Casey’s ads are as ineffective as he is.
We WILL do this.
these 12 are more important that Mittster.
I see loads of Tom Smith ads here in York County. I think it’s kind of a waste of money here, as I see way more Romney/Smith signs in this area than Obama signs. I have NEVER seen a Casey sign around here.
these 12 are more important than Mittster.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Respectfully disagree. Can’t underestimate the value of SCOTUS appointments, all the other judicial appointments, and the optics of another four years of Bathhouse Barry.
Your statement is really confusing.
>The funny thing - the ads actually make Casey (Smith ?) look like a guy who cares and want to reform government.
>And I have not seen ONE Casey (Smith ?) ad.
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In the western suburbs (Chester and Delaware counties), I see mostly Repub signs, very few Obama signs.
This is the week when polling firms tend to start reporting reality, in order to maintain some credibility.
ANYBODY IN PA: if you receive a polling call, take the poll, say you are a Democrat, and say you are unhappy with Obama. If nothing else, this will make the Dems think they need to spend a lot more ad money in PA, money which won't be available elsewhere.
On election night, if the Dems don't win PA, Obama has lost and you can go to bed.
I am confident we'll get a majority. We might get 9 or 10 of the 12. I am very confident in Flake, Brown, Aiken, Heller, Mandell, ND and MT; somewhat confident in Allen, Mourdock; toss up in WI and CT; and still a ways to go in PA.
You are correct - I have yet to see a Smith TV ad (Philly market)
And miss the celebration? No way!
I see them all the time-lower Bucks.
Here is my latest take on which 10 U.S. Senate are most likely to flip:
1.) Nebraska- Democrats had a plan here: lure Bob Kerrey out of retirement, and use their opposition research files to discredit Jon Bruning or Ben Stenberg, both of whom had flaws. But when Deb Fischer came out of nowhere to win the GOP nomination, Democrats had to find a Plan B. They still haven’t found one.
2.) Maine- Angus King has slipped in recent polls, and the liberal Super PAC attacks on Charlie Summers seem to bear this out. King is still favored, but it’s no longer a sure thing. Summers would be helped big by a campaign appearance from Olympia Snowe, but they had a bitter falling out this Spring.
3.) Massachusetts- Scott Brown is doing everything he needs to do, but it still might not be enough. Squaw Wannabe Elizabeth Warren took the lead after her speech in Charlotte. Brown is regaining lost ground now, but he’ll need a very large crossover vote to hang on.
4.) Montana- Jon Tester vs. Denny Rehberg was supposed to be a sure thing, but Tester has run a shrewd campaign and Rehberg wasn’t the stellar candidate he was thought to be. It’s a tossup, with perhaps a tiny edge for Rehberg. That being said, Rehberg is now running a clever ad featuring twins and the state is trending Republican in other races. I expect a narrow victory here.
5.) North Dakota- What was expected to be a sure loss for Democrats has become a serious headache for Republicans. Rick Berg has proven to be a dud of a candidate, while Heidi Heithkamp has turned out to be surprisingly effective and the MSM is portraying her as a Lifetime Television-style martyr. The latest twist- the huge real estate firm Berg worked for has been accused of shady dealings and mistreatment of tenants, including sending a collections officer to the middle east to harrass a soldier while he was on duty. Polls show the race even in this very Republican state.
6.) Conecticut- Linda McMahon continues to pleasantly surprise Republicans and exceed expectations, she has learned a lot since 2010, and is running even with Christopher Murphy, who is stil hurt by McMahon’s attack on a mortgage he got a while back. Murphy seems to be slowly recovering and is about even now.
7.) Wisconsin- Last month, Tommy Thompson won the primary but was broke and had to leave the state to raise funds while his campaign couldn’t afford air time. Tammy Baldwin and her allies saw the opening and spent multi-millions portraying Thompson as an out-of-state lobbyist and he couldn’t counter the charges. Now he’s back and on the air, but the attacks have stung and Baldwin seems to be slightly ahead. Conservatives find it incomprehensible that Baldwin could win, for reasons that are obvious. Perhaps a trend known as the Bradley Effect is at work here.
8.) Indiana- Blue Dog Democrat Joe Donnelly has proven to be a surprisingly tough candidate and the nasty Republican primary continues to help his cause, but Richard Mourdock seems to be pulling slightly ahead. Mourdock is seen in some quarters as a radical, but Donnelly’s vote for ObamaCare is highly unpupular. Obama is falling further behind in the state, which can only help.
9.) Arizona- Another state where Republicans were caught napping. Ex-U.S. Surgeon General Richard Camarona has used his amazing resume (born in poverty, decorated Vietnam Vet and NYC cop who worked his way through medical school at night) to pull even with Congressman Jeff Flake. However, Flake has scored points with a strong debate performance and a tough ad recounting Camarona’s bullying of an employee several years back.
10.) Pennsylvania- a refrehing change, in this case, Democrats were caught napping. Coal mine owner Tom Smith has come out of nowhere with a shrewd self-funded campaign which has attacked Bob Casey as an innefectual backbencher who did little while the state’s economy dropped. Casey has a slight edge, but the momentum is on Smith’s side.
country is in a mess if after the past 6 years of Pelosi-Bambi that in the heartland, the DEMS are running even.
Country hasn’t really changed. If the reject Bambi, it will not be because of ideology, but the results of that ideology which the american public does not identify with the ideology ... the next Bush failed admin will just lead to the next Bambi in ‘16 or ‘20 or ‘24.
How bout MO?
Carmona is exhibit A as to why only loyal Republicans and never democrats or “independents” (like Carmona was) should be appointed by Republican Presidents (Or Governors) to ANYTHING unless it’s to gain their elected office (like with rat Rep. Tony Hall) (and for the FEC and anything else where no more than half the members can be of one political party some Republicans could “leave the party” wink wink to fill those seats)
It’s sickening to see a rat Senate contender come out of Bush’s subcabinet. That said, he will lose.
I don’t think we’ll get MO but it’s more likely than the rats getting AZ or keeping ND, that’s for sure.
“That said, he (Carmona) will lose.”
I hope so.
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