Posted on 10/14/2012 10:00:31 PM PDT by Steelfish
Presidential Contest Tight Nationally Ahead Of Second Debate
Dan Balz and Jon Cohen October 14
On the eve of their second debate, President Obama and challenger Mitt Romney remain locked in a virtual dead heat nationally, with Republicans showing increased enthusiasm for their nominee after his big win in the first debate, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Likely voters in the new poll split 49 percent for Obama to 46 percent for Romney, basically unmoved from the poll two weeks ago, just before the two candidates met in Denver for their first debate. On topic after topic, the survey portrays an electorate that remains deeply divided along partisan lines and locked in its views.
Nearly two-thirds say they do not need any more information before Election Day, and barely one in eight is undecided or says there is a chance he could change his vote. Even as voters overwhelmingly perceive that Romney won the first debate, the vast majority say their opinion of the president did not shift as a result.
But more people changed their views of Romney, largely in a positive direction. Overall, more than twice as many say their opinions of the former Massachusetts governor improved than say they worsened as a result of the debate. The strongest reaction is among Romney backers, 70 percent of whom say Denver made them think more highly of the GOP nominee.
The improvement in views of Romney carries directly into the underpinnings of his support: Fewer of his supporters now express anxiety about a Romney administration, and the number of his backers saying they support him “very enthusiastically” jumped by double digits. Among the likely voters supporting Romney, 62 percent now do so intensely, exactly double the number who were eagerly lined up behind Republican nominee...
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
lol I never said Steelfish conducted that poll. You may want to read my another post just above.
So, why was Obama up by 3 pts? Obviously, because their sample was D+9.
Yet, they describe the Romney voters as vastly more enthusiastic and motivated than the Obama voters. So, how can their sample be D+9 -- when, in 2008, it was only D+8?
It's my understanding that pollsters don't weight for party ID. But, they DO weight for the standard demographic characteristics -- age, income, education, race, gender, etc. But, somehow, the demographic weighting is resulting in an over-sampling of white Democrats.
I submit this could well be an effect due to Caller ID. White Republicans may well be less likely to respond to an unknown number or a pollster ID than white Democrats. As a consequence, the demographic cohort we happen to inhabit ends up with an over-representation of white Democrats.
Highly possible, since we now know that only 9% of calls result in a complete interview.
Accordingly, in my opinion, it is probably safe to mentally adjust the results to a lower Dem turnout than +9 and conclude that the race is either tied or Romney has a slight lead.
Moreover, I note that, on many specific questions -- such as right track/wrong track, Obama is under-performing his supposed 49-46 advantage.
In my view, this suggests that there are many respondents who are a.) giving an honest answer to the specific questions but b.) hedging with their presidential preference vote -- not wanting to be perceived as a "racist".
Once in the privacy of the voting booth many of those will cast their vote for Romney. So, add another 2-3 pts to the Romney column.
Finally, history tells us that the "undecideds" will break for the challenger. So, add yet another 2-3 pts to the Romney total.
In the end, I remain confident that this will be a landslide (55-45 or better). But it won't look like it until they actually count the votes...
The bamster bombs at the debate and still hasa 3 point lead?Just aint the truth,not one bit of it.
We know that the environment in 2008 was toxic to any Republican in general, and 0bama was considered novel. Hence, any poll with weight the same, or even worse, give more weight to the Democrats, would be considered suspicious since it maybe overestimate the Dhims. Similarly, while 2010 did happen, it was not a presidential year. So, we might not see the same Republican turnout this year, and any poll using the same weight as 2010 maybe overestimate the Republicans.
So, use your brain too. Consistent knee-jerk reaction against anything positive for Romney or spreading anything negative for him without careful evaluation of the news is also suspicious.
Considering this is a RAT +9 sample, I am more encouraged by these numbers than the Rasmussen and Gallup numbers that show Romney ahead.
Of course, ABC has an agenda behind releasing them this way. They need to try to show that the Kenyan has turned the tide and is still in command even though that is far from the reality of the situation.
True. An honestly weighted sample of D+3 or so would show Romney up by a couple of points.
I am certain that is why the Post refused to use such a sample. Those of us with brains will interpret it correctly, the typical moron that simply hears the story on TV and on the radio will assume Obummer has solidified a lead.
Gallop had Reagan losing to Jimmuh by 6% with 7 days to go until the 1980 election.
We all know how wrong Gallup was - Reagan wins by 10%.
The OBama press cranking out those D+ 9% and more over Rs to fit their delusions.
New Politico poll out. No story posted yet, just raw numbers for now. Looks like a 49-49 tie.
http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/politico_gwbgp_oct15_pollresults.html
Thanks- we have some folks here who continually behave like the proverbial three blind monkeys when it comes to the Romney-Ryan ticket.
The Battleground / Politico poll is the one I trust the most.
While I would love to see Romney ahead and breaking 50%, if they are seeing a 49/49 tie, I am inclined to believe it.
Not a bad spot for the challenger to be in with less than a month to go, and the momentum moving in his direction.
No, you didn’t say it but you act like one of the proverbial three monkeys who speak no evil, see no evil or hear no evil. In this case the “evil” of course is negative views. Those with intelligence examine the forensics of the poll and come to their own conclusion. Remember that aside from the numbers it also cites a stronger measure of enthusiasm for Romney and refers to a sharply divided electorate which is confirmed in every single poll.
If so nothing could be better for our side if they get the surprise of their life and this trash is taken out of the WH!
I’m compiling a list of concern trolls. Steelfish and chopperjc are the inner-circle Hall of Fame members.
FReepers. Just look at their post histories. They are leftists who have a simple mission: nurture discouragement.
I’ll update my list as time goes on. You’ll notice chopperjc has been pretty quiet since Mitt’s taken the lead in most national polls.
Hank
No, but show the breakdown of who is being polled, that is the necessary context.
So when we are suspious of a poll showing Obama ahead it is with good reason, they are cooking the books.
Don't act like our skepticism is unreasonable.
You’re a troll. period.
You scour around to find any and all bad polls or news articles on Romney then run out of here.
Thanks, Hank...:)
[watching “2016” on DirecTV right now...we’ll be distracted for a bit]
Actual question in the poll.
“Q: Who do you think is more likely to go bungee-jumping [BUN-jee], (Obama) or (Romney)?”
Are these f’in people serious?!
I wondered when the “media” were going to start engineering polls back to laughably high D+? sampling.
Anyone who can`t see this crap for what it is is a blind fool.
Watch for NBC/Marist to announce one showing obama ahead by 7, with a D+15 sample.
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